Recently, HTX Research, the exclusive research department of Huobi HTX, released the third quarter outlook report for 2026 titled Liquidity Defines the Crypto Market: A New Crypto Order Under Global Liquidity Repricing. In the report, HTX Research uses the market changes that occurred in the second quarter as a starting point to provide a complete assessment of the next stage, focusing on two main lines: liquidity and regulation.

Read the full report:

https://square.htx.com/zh/htx-research-quarterly-strategy-2026-q3-liquidity-defines-crypto-a-new-crypto-order-under-global-liquidity-repricing-2/

The quarterly outlook is launched based on Huobi HTX's observation of users' real needs: in an information-overloaded and rapidly changing narrative crypto market, users need an analytical thread that can penetrate the noise and clarify the mid-term main line. HTX Research adopts a quarterly cycle, incorporating macro liquidity, policy regulation, and on-chain fundamentals into a unified framework, helping users understand the deeper drivers of the market beyond price fluctuations, thereby clarifying trends and building their own strategy framework more clearly.

Looking back at the recently concluded second quarter, HTX Research believes that the price pullback of crypto assets is essentially a global liquidity repricing driven by macro factors, and the long-term logic and fundamentals of the crypto industry have not reversed as a result. The combination of four forces: the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift, the strengthening of the dollar, the reversal of fund flows into spot ETFs, and the cooling of corporate treasury purchases, collectively raised funding costs and compressed market risk budgets. This round of adjustment is clearly different from the last bear market: the latter was caused by internal credit collapses and damaged institutional trust within the industry, while this round of pressure is concentrated on the macro level, with rising funding costs and the disappearance of marginal buying as the main reasons. This judgment is clearly confirmed by data: Bitcoin fell from about $82,000, its peak in mid-May, to about $59,000 in June, with a peak-to-valley valuation compression of about 24%; the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of nearly $4.9 billion in May and June, with previously core marginal buyers turning into selling pressure.

Based on this background, HTX Research has put forward three judgments on various assets. First, the mid-term trend of Bitcoin is still determined by global dollar liquidity, and geopolitical conflicts such as the situation in Iran only change short-term risk preferences. In the second quarter, gold temporarily outperformed Bitcoin, further confirming that its pricing logic is now more aligned with global liquidity assets. Secondly, the market no longer pays a premium for pure narratives; the divergence of ETH, DeFi, and altcoins indicates that ecological activity, TVL, and user growth must be converted into transaction fees, income, destruction, or clear token value capture to sustain valuations. Lastly, the price pullback has not interrupted the expansion of infrastructure; the tokenized RWA (excluding stablecoins) scale increased from about $29.49 billion to $32.28 billion in the second quarter, with tokenized US Treasuries continuing to contribute to the main incremental growth, while stablecoin settlements, on-chain securities, and institutional compliance channels are also advancing simultaneously.

Regarding the third quarter, the report states that the market direction will depend on two yet-to-be-confirmed conditions: whether the global liquidity can stop deteriorating and whether regulatory certainty can release institutional risk budgets.

Accordingly, HTX Research has proposed three variables that need to be continuously tracked: first, whether the Federal Reserve will continue its hawkish reaction function; second, the issuance rhythm of the US Treasury and the liquidity draining effect of TGA reconstruction (after the RRP buffer has been nearly exhausted, TGA has replaced traditional QT and become a more critical liquidity variable); third, the legislative progress of the CLARITY Act. This Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee markup by a vote of 15 to 9 and is on the legislative agenda; whether it can cross the 60-vote threshold will constitute the biggest policy variable in the third quarter.

On this basis, the report constructs three scenarios and their probabilities: in the baseline scenario (60%), liquidity will improve slightly, regulation will continue to advance but not fully materialize, and the market is more likely to show structural repair; the optimistic scenario (25%) corresponds to inflation retreating, the dollar weakening, and regulatory progress exceeding expectations; the pessimistic scenario (15%) arises from another impact on energy prices and further liquidity contraction.

At the same time, the report sorts out the sensitivity of various assets to the above two main lines. Bitcoin is viewed as a proxy variable for global liquidity and often reflects the marginal changes in liquidity first; RWA is seen as a structural main line that traverses cycles under the support of high-interest-rate environments and institutional compliance demands; the revaluation of quality DeFi depends more on real income, risk governance, and value capture capability, rather than TVL size; and the repair of ETH awaits further confirmation of transaction fees, destruction, and ETF fund flows. HTX Research concludes that the market in the third quarter will not reward all risks, and liquidity, cash flow, and compliance pathways will become key factors distinguishing asset performance.

Through this report, HTX Research aims to help global Huobi HTX users clearly sort out the key variables and verification signals for the third quarter, providing a reference analysis basis for them to judge market direction in a complex macro environment. In the future, HTX Research will continue to release the Quarterly Outlook along with other types of high-quality research content, synchronously updating the analytical framework with the evolution of macro and policy environments, providing stable support for users to track market trends and refine strategy thinking over the long term.

Note: This article does not constitute investment advice.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis of a wide range of fields including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry views and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and facilitating deep understanding of the evolving market dynamics. Visit us.

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