Author: Surf

Core Findings

This analysis covers January to June 2026, with data including Polymarket on-chain transaction data, Kalshi trading data, and Binance second-level spot data used for settlement research. Any incomplete statistical periods are noted in the corresponding charts. The trading volume data used in this article pertains to unilateral actual trade volume (taker volume) rather than nominal trade volume (nominal volume).

• Periodic cryptocurrency contract trading reflects genuine demand, and Kalshi's monthly unilateral trading volume has surpassed Polymarket. Among the combined $10.07 billion in cryptocurrency asset price prediction market (unilateral) trading volume from both platforms, about $7.8 billion comes from contracts measured in minutes or hours. In the first half of 2026, Polymarket recorded $5.59 billion in transactions, while Kalshi recorded $4.48 billion—Kalshi's share of the crypto market is increasing each month.

• Polymarket and Kalshi have taken different product paths. Both platforms primarily trade BTC, but Polymarket focuses on 5-minute markets that allow for small bets, while Kalshi's shortest contracts are 15 minutes long.

• High trading volume does not equate to high fees collected. Polymarket's cryptocurrency trading volume is approximately 1.25 times that of Kalshi, yet the measured fees for six months are only about $53.9 million. Based on fee rates, Kalshi's modeled average fee rate is about 2.8 times that of Polymarket's measured rate (2.74% vs. 0.96%). Note that this is a rate differential, which is different from the previously mentioned 3.6 times share change; and this comparison only serves directional reference—it places Kalshi's modeled fees alongside Polymarket's measured fees, rather than comparing revenues on the same basis.

• Polymarket's 5-minute markets are dominated by bots, raising manipulation suspicions. Suspected bot wallets contributed about 86% of the taker transaction volume, and appeared on both the buy and sell sides in approximately 79% of transactions. This classification is based on trading behavior and does not confirm that any specific wallet is controlled by a program.

• As highlighted by a study from Stanford University, the sudden increase in trading volume on Binance coincides repeatedly with Po...

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