The regulatory agency did not regard Polymarket as a violation of financial trading venues but directly classified it as a violation product that harms consumer rights.

Source: Blockhead

Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

The French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) has now ordered all domestic online service providers to block Polymarket. This is a prediction trading platform that allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency.

This official ban was formally issued by the French National Gambling Authority on July 16, escalating a regulatory game that has lasted four years, with unprecedentedly strict regulatory measures. The core focus of this control centers on the harm caused to ordinary users by the platform, rather than the risk to financial market order.

This classification is crucial: the regulatory agency did not categorize Polymarket as an unlicensed cryptocurrency exchange but directly identified it as an illegal gambling operation, placing it in the same regulatory category as unlicensed online casinos and sports betting platforms. The legal constraints and enforcement mechanisms corresponding to these two definitions are entirely different, and this will profoundly influence the handling ideas of regulatory agencies in other European countries.

Data Basis Behind the Regulatory Upgrade

France previously introduced regulations in November 2024 prohibiting domestic users from conducting financial transactions with Polymarket, but this measure had little effect. The French National Gambling Authority cited data from traffic analysis platform Similarweb, showing that in June 2026, the platform had 205057 unique visitors in the French region, with a total of 578751 visits. Users can easily bypass the fund transfer restrictions by using a virtual private network (VPN). The regulatory body concluded that only by directly blocking the website’s domain name can effective control be achieved.

The regulatory agency also listed two violations for investigation: Météo-France, the French meteorological agency, filed a complaint alleging that someone tampered with temperature sensor data to manipulate weather-related prediction contracts on Polymarket; the cybercrime department of the Paris Prosecutor's Office has opened an investigation into this matter on May 4. In addition, the regulatory body is paying close attention to a trader in France with the account name "Fredi9999," who has manipulated betting odds related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election through large positions and is now subject to scrutiny by French regulators.

As early as February 2026, the French National Gambling Authority had reclassified such prediction markets as illegal gambling. The reason is that these platforms lack the risk protection mechanisms mandated by authorized French gambling institutions: restrictions on betting amounts and user self-exclusion channels, which cannot ensure consumer safety.

What This Event Means for the Entire Industry

It is not only France that is restricting Polymarket; currently, more than 30 countries and regions worldwide have implemented controls on the platform: Switzerland was the first to ban the website in November 2024; at the beginning of 2025, Poland, Singapore, and Belgium followed suit with restrictions; in January 2026, Portugal introduced control measures; in May of the same year, Spain issued a temporary blocking order and simultaneously initiated an investigation. Brazil, Argentina, India, Indonesia, as well as Italy, Germany, Romania, Hungary, and Ukraine have also rolled out related restrictive policies.

However, France is the largest economy in the EU and the first member state to require nationwide operators to uniformly block the website. The official documents repeatedly mention the platform's addictive properties and harm to consumers, using language that is entirely consistent with that used in regulating gaming loot boxes and other types of gray gambling products.

The more profound impact of this matter lies in whether this regulatory standard will be implemented across the entire EU. France has categorized prediction markets as gambling rather than financial instruments or information services, which creates a clear conflict with the current EU regulatory framework under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). If other EU member states follow France's logic of determination, cryptocurrency prediction markets may be uniformly banned across the EU based on gambling law rather than being regulated in compliance with financial market regulations. This is contrary to the compliance development path that the U.S. compliant prediction platform Kalshi has long planned.

Kalshi is a compliant prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is currently continuing to expand its institutional business in the U.S., with previous plans for expansion in the European market. Once the EU uniformly classifies such platforms as gambling projects, its European expansion plans will face significant obstacles – it does not mean that European users will be completely unable to access it, but rather that the regulatory positioning and brand image of the platform will fundamentally sever from its domestic U.S. business.

At this stage, France serves as a testing sample for EU regulation. If the blocking measures by operators significantly reduce local access traffic, and the meteorological data tampering case eventually leads to prosecution, other EU regulatory agencies will closely reference this case to develop their own control plans.