Written by: Forbes
Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
In 2026, Bitcoin has faced significant challenges, failing to maintain the historical high of over $126,000 reached last year. Despite multiple positive signals from U.S. President Trump, Bitcoin's price has still fallen more than 50% since October of last year. However, several analysts point out that a potential policy shift from the Federal Reserve may be brewing a turnaround.
As BlackRock's CEO recently released a 12-month Bitcoin price forecast, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas provided a highly valuable comparison: the influx of Bitcoin ETFs is likely to make Bitcoin's price trajectory "mirror" gold's "victories and pain" over the past 20 years.
Balchunas noted on the X platform: "The 22-year history of gold ETFs may be the closest roadmap for Bitcoin ETF investors." Since the introduction of gold ETFs in 2004, gold prices have soared, with a current total market capitalization nearing $28 trillion. This figure alone is enough to spark market imagination—if Bitcoin can replicate some of gold's successful paths, its potential upside could be extremely considerable.
He further analyzed: "Both gold and Bitcoin are packaged products of non-yielding stores of value; they do not generate cash flows, and the core driver of their prices wholly relies on investor sentiment rather than the profitability of traditional stocks, bond coupons, or government credit backing."
Over the past 20 years, gold ETFs have experienced dramatic fluctuations: briefly becoming the world's largest ETF in 2011, they then entered an eight-year slump, struggling to recover. Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETFs are playing out a similar script— "astounding gains, painful pullbacks, and a recovery phase that requires extreme patience to endure." Notably, each cycle of gold ETFs has elevated historical highs, which is particularly encouraging for long-term Bitcoin holders.
Looking back at the development of Bitcoin ETFs: in early 2024, after more than a decade of sustained advocacy within the crypto community, spot Bitcoin ETFs were finally approved to enter the market. Wall Street institutions rushed in, with several leading funds quickly becoming some of the fastest-growing ETF products in history. This not only marked Bitcoin's transition from a fringe asset to the mainstream financial system but also foreshadowed subsequent price fluctuations.
However, volatility has always accompanied Bitcoin. Earlier this month, Bitfinex exchange analysts warned that a "shock" large-scale outflow of ETF funds could directly interrupt the current rebound momentum. Bitcoin has recovered nearly 10% from its low of below $57,000 in early July, but the market remains highly vigilant.
As the absolute leader in the Bitcoin ETF space, BlackRock's IBIT fund has sold nearly 100,000 Bitcoins in recent months to cope with redemption pressure, currently holding over 733,000 Bitcoins, with assets nearing $50 billion. This also reflects the flow characteristics of institutional funds—both entry and exit may trigger significant market reactions.
Despite a significant pullback in Bitcoin prices this year, many long-term optimists remain confident. They generally believe that Bitcoin is likely to witness long-term prosperity comparable to gold. Balchunas himself emphasized the "spiritual parallel" between the two: "Gold surged rapidly in popularity, surpassing the world's largest ETF SPY on a certain day in 2011, followed by years of decline. IBIT also briefly surged to a peak of $100 billion in assets on one day—that coincided with the peak in October 2025. Both supplies are nearly fixed, and when demand erupts concentrically, prices can explode. However, the issue is that demand is often fickle, coming in waves rather than being stable and continuous."
From the perspective of experienced observers in the crypto industry, this comparison is highly realistic. Gold, through its scarcity, safe-haven properties, and global recognition, has achieved long-term value anchoring; Bitcoin, through its halving mechanism, decentralized network, and increasing institutional adoption, exhibits similar characteristics of "digital gold." The emergence of ETFs further lowers the barriers to entry, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure without needing to hold Bitcoin directly, thereby amplifying demand elasticity.
Currently, the market remains optimistic about the resilience of ETF demand. XS.com Business Development Director Simon-Peter Massabni pointed out: "Institutional demand remains one of Bitcoin's most solid pillars. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see consistent inflows, and more enterprises are beginning to incorporate digital assets into their portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest has effectively mitigated selling pressure during the recent market pullback."
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's trajectory will be deeply influenced by the macro environment, regulatory dynamics, and institutional behaviors. With gold's market value standing at nearly $28 trillion, if Bitcoin can gradually take on a similar "store of value" position, even reaching just a fraction of gold's market value, it will bring extraordinarily considerable appreciation potential. Of course, this process is bound to accompany intense volatility—this is the essence of the crypto market's "high risk, high reward."
For ordinary investors, the key is to remain rational, diversify risks, and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term noise. The story of Bitcoin is far from over; as more traditional funds enter the arena and the infrastructure improves, the prologue to this "price explosion" may just be beginning. From gold to Bitcoin: fixed supply + institutional frenzy may replicate an "explosive" price trend?
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