BIT trading moment: BTC is still pressured under the weekly 200 EMA, after being rejected, it may resume its decline. Last night's surge in storage and semiconductor contracts opened lower in the night session.

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Bitcoin Faces Resistance at 68,000, Still Remains Above 200-Week Moving Average

The cryptocurrency market continues its rebound, with Bitcoin's price hovering around $66,000, briefly breaking through $66,900, rebounding more than 15% from the July low. CoinDesk points out that Bitcoin currently seems to be following chip stocks and macro risk preferences, rather than trading the "digital gold" narrative independently.

The current pressure zones for Bitcoin are concentrated at $67,000, $67,300, $67,900, and $68,000. Bitfinex analysts believe that the area around $68,000 is not only close to the average cost of investors over the past five months but also corresponds to the failure point of the rebound in mid-June, suggesting that a significant number of trapped funds may sell after recovering their costs, leading to potential volatility on the first test.

From a technical perspective, traders are watching the BTC weekly 200MA around $63,333 and the 200EMA around $68,328. Daan Crypto Trades notes that Bitcoin is wedged between the weekly 200MA, weekly 200EMA, and bullish support zone, with the current price positioned in the middle of these key moving averages. It will need to close the weekly above $55,000 or below $70,000 to confirm the direction of a major breakout. If it breaks through $68,000, Bitcoin is expected to open up space for further upward movement; if it fails, it may retest support around $63,000.

However, the market remains in a cautious recovery phase. Vetle Lunde, head of K33 Research, points out that the open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has fallen to a low for 2023, and the spot trading volume is also noticeably weak, making the current situation appear more like a "summer low liquidity rebound" rather than the start of a full bull market.

Key Points Today:

MBG will unlock approximately 27.15 million tokens on July 22, valued at around $3.3 million.
SOON will unlock approximately 20.24 million tokens on July 23, valued at around $3.3 million.
Token unlock · 08:00
aPriori (APR) will unlock approximately 31.88 million tokens on July 23, valued at around $6.8 million.
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, XRP, ETH, ERA, ONDO.
Bitcoin spot ETF: +$203 million, continuous net inflow for 6 days.
Ethereum spot ETF: +$37.471 million, continuous net inflow for 3 days.

Top gainers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap today:NIGHT up 16%, BEAT up 14.4%, HASH up 12.1%, RAIN up 6.3%, GRAM up 4.3%.

US Stock Futures Decline, Stocks that Rose Last Night Fall in After-Hours Trading

All three major US stock index futures are down, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.79%, Dow futures down 0.29%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.33%.

BIT After-Hours Data shows that in US stock after-hours trading, stocks in the semiconductor and storage sectors that surged last night have started to decline, with semiconductor ETF down 2.22%, 3x long semiconductor ETF down 6.28%, and Intel down 2.7%. Micron, which surged more than 10% last night, is down 2.29%, SanDisk down 1.92%, SK Hynix down 4.95%, and Storage ETF DRAM down 3.18%.

Notably, Supermicro Computer (SMCI) gained over 20% in after-hours trading and rose 15.8% in night trading, as the company expects revenue for Q4 to be near the lower end of its guidance range of $11 billion to $12.5 billion, but gross margin significantly increased to 15% to 17%, much higher than the previous expectation of 8.2% to 8.4%. More importantly, the company stated that new quarterly orders exceeded $60 billion, and unfilled orders reached a historical high, reinforcing the view that there is still strong demand for AI servers.
Rocket Lab gained over 7% in after-hours trading and rose 4% in night trading, as the company received a $266 million contract from the US Air Force to perform suborbital rocket launch missions.
Oklo rose over 6.6% in after-hours trading, X-Energy rose over 8.6%, and both also rose over 3% in night trading. The two companies have officially joined the new nuclear reactor construction plan promoted by the Trump administration, as the market continues to view "after AI computing power comes electricity" as a new layer of infrastructure trade.
SpaceX ended a seven-day decline with a 3.08% increase last night and continued to rise 0.23% in night trading. The market is awaiting its first earnings report after going public on August 4; meanwhile, ahead of a large-scale unlock on August 6, the struggle between short sellers and bulls is heating up. S3 Partners estimates that about 206 million shares of SpaceX stock are currently shorted, accounting for about 32% of the float, with nominal short positions estimated at $25 billion.

US Stocks Rose Sharply Last Night, but Oil and US Treasuries Dampen the Market

All three major US indexes rose collectively on Tuesday, ending three consecutive declines. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.21%, achieving its best single-day performance in six weeks. The storage sector soared, with Micron up 12.17%, SanDisk up 14.27%, Western Digital up 12.51%, Seagate up 11.14%, and SK Hynix shares up 13.75%. The market is regaining confidence that the spread of AI models will lead to increased demand for storage, computing power, and servers.

Bank of America believes that open-source models like Kimi K3 will not weaken hardware demand, but will actually increase demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND due to local deployments and privatized training. UBS also states that tech giants view AI as a "winner-takes-all" competition, and even if short-term returns are not high, they will continue to buy hardware.

NVIDIA rose 1.97%, as the company disclosed that the Vera Rubin platform has entered the ramp-up phase for mass production, with Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, and CoreWeave already beginning deployment. AMD rose 8.11%, as the market is betting on its AI activities. Intel rose 8.64%, driven by the semiconductor sector rebound and obtained a contract from Tower Semiconductor.

BIT's US stock business special analyst Jun previously pointed out that recently, the critical point for US stocks lies in two lines: one is whether the earnings reports can validate profits, and the other is whether AI infrastructure and semiconductor positions remain stable. Earlier, AI infrastructure stocks were under pressure due to factors such as Meta's computing power rental plan and SK Hynix's sharp drop, but this round of rebound indicates that the market is reevaluating the demand for AI hardware.

However, the US stock market is not easy. Brent crude oil has risen above $91, and the US-Iran conflict has continued to escalate, with the US attacking Iranian targets for the 11th consecutive night, while Red Sea shipping is also threatened by Houthi forces, the rising oil prices have rekindled inflation worries.

The US Treasury market is also dampening stock prices, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to about 4.64%, breaking the key level of 4.60%; the 30-year inflation-protected Treasury yield rose to 2.95%, the highest since 2008. RBC interest rate strategist Izaac Brook states that rising energy prices are the main reason for rising rates. Natixis's chief US economist Christopher Hodge believes the Federal Reserve should pay more attention to the energy price shock that has already occurred.

According to data fromBIT US Stocks, cryptocurrency concept stocks performed strongly, Coinbase rose approximately 9.6%, Robinhood rose 7.11%, and Strategy rose 4.22%. The main reason is the advancement of the US CLARITY Act, and the market believes that crypto regulation is becoming clearer. Circle will announce its earnings report on August 5, and the market will focus on the scale and reserve returns of USDC. Mining companies also strengthened, with American Bitcoin rising 12.13%, Cipher Digital rising 11.44%, Hut 8 rising 7.98%, Bitdeer rising 9.76%, driven by the Bitcoin rebound and the narrative of AI computing power transformation.

South Korean Semiconductors Recover, Japanese Yen Risks Rise

The Asian market generally followed the recovery of US tech stocks, but the trend is not stable. The rebound in AI hardware has strengthened the tech chains of South Korea and Japan, but the Yen's decline below 163, rising oil prices, and rising US Treasury yields also keep the market alert.

The KOSPI index in South Korea rose more than 6% at one point in the morning, but ultimately closed up 0.74%. The rise is mainly due to the nearing end of previous leverage unwinding, with the market shifting from panic selling to recovery. JPMorgan strategist Mixo Das stated that South Korean leveraged ETFs may have completed about 75% of their deleveraging.

South Korean semiconductor stocks experienced a rise and fall, with SK Hynix rising more than 9% in the morning, but ultimately fell 0.32%; Samsung Electronics rose 0.57%. SK Hynix is reported to be in talks to acquire Intel’s Ohio facilities with plans to produce storage chips in the US, but further news is unclear, leading to stock price fluctuations. The South Korean government is discussing exchange rate stability with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motors, Kia, and other exporters, expecting semiconductor exports to improve foreign exchange supply and demand in the second half of the year.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.18%. Japan's exports in June rose 19.3% year-on-year, while imports rose 25.4%, resulting in a trade deficit of 406.9 billion yen. The depreciation of the Yen is beneficial for the income conversion of export companies but also raises the costs of energy and imports.

The biggest risk remains the exchange rate, as the Yen has reached a new low since 1986. Former Bank of Japan policy member Sayuri Shirai warned that if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the USD/JPY could rise towards 165. The market is starting to worry about potential Japanese government intervention in the foreign exchange market; if intervention occurs, it could trigger global arbitrage liquidation, impacting tech stocks and risk assets.

Next, focus on:

July 22 (Wednesday) (Tech Super Day)

21:00 Samsung Galaxy global new product launch will be held, the market is concerned whether the new devices will feature more edge-side AI capabilities.
July 22-23 AMD AI activities: The market is looking to AMD for a clearer AI server roadmap and customer orders to decide whether the AI hardware rebound can spread.
Google, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, and ServiceNow will release earnings reports after the market closes: Alphabet's earnings report will focus on Google Cloud, advertising, and AI capital expenditures. If cloud growth is strong, it will support the AI hardware chain; if investment is high but returns are weak, tech stocks may feel pressure; Tesla's earnings report will focus on automotive gross margin, energy storage, FSD, and Robotaxi.

July 23 (Thursday)

20:15 European Central Bank interest rate decision and Lagarde press conference: The market expects no changes, but statements regarding inflation and liquidity recovery will trigger fluctuations in the Euro and global bond markets.
20:30 US weekly initial jobless claims: The market expects about 214,000 claims. If initial claims are significantly lower than expected, it indicates that the labor market remains tight, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to shift towards easing; if initial claims rise, it will strengthen the growth slowdown trade, benefiting US Treasuries and suppressing banks and cyclicals.
Intel will release earnings reports after the market closes, marking the most critical transformation test after the semiconductor bear market. On the same day, Nokia, Lockheed Martin, RTX, Blackstone, American Airlines, Newman Mining, Honeywell, SAP, Digital Realty, and T-Mobile will also release earnings reports.

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