Author: Heart of Computing Power

Bitdeer CFO Michael Potter made an unusual layout in the management comments during the operational update in June.

First reporting the annualized revenue of AI cloud services at $76 million, and then presenting the mining performance which surged 388% year-on-year, with 990 bitcoins mined in a single month.

This order itself is an outline of a story.

1. The Data is Impressive, But the Market is Not Buying It

In June, Bitdeer's self-operated mining power surged to 73.0 EH/s.

With 243,000 mining machines running simultaneously, they produced 990 bitcoins in a single month, a year-on-year increase from 203 bitcoins last June, up 388%.

In another business chart, the annual recurring revenue for AI Cloud surged by $7 million in a month, reaching $76 million, with 4,248 GPUs, of which 3,517 have already been subscribed by clients.

In Malaysia, they signed a 10-year lease, planning to deploy 128 Nvidia GB300 NVL72 clusters.

In Norway, the 225MW Tydal site is being transformed from a mining site into an AI data center.

The 563MW site in Rockdale, Texas is currently under evaluation for a potential shift towards AI.

The 570MW in Clarington, Ohio and 300MW in Niles are new AI/hosting projects under construction.

Combined, these sites account for approximately 1.7GW, while Bitdeer's total global power capacity exceeds 3GW.

However, the day before this series of dazzling data was announced, BTDR’s stock price closed at $11.37, having dropped 6.27% over the past week.

On the day of the announcement, the stock price rebounded approximately 9.76%, closing at $12.48.

But this one-day funding frenzy cannot obscure one fact.

This “money printing machine” that consumes tens of thousands of kilowatt-hours in a month is actually losing money overall.

2. Surging Production and Negative Profit Margins

Looking through the financial statements for the first quarter of this year, the numbers revealed another facet.

In the first quarter, Bitdeer’s self-mining revenue recorded $147 million, but the corresponding cost reached as high as $181 million.

This calculation results in a negative gross profit of $34.4 million, with a gross margin of approximately -23.4%, and a total company gross margin of -20.7%.

High electricity costs, depreciation, and mining machine supply chain expenses have drained the profit pool of the mining business.

Returning to the production data from June, behind the achievement of 990 bitcoins is a sharp slowdown in growth:

661 bitcoins in March, 783 in April, 921 in May.

By June, the month-on-month growth rate had dwindled to only 7.5%.

Therefore, industry insiders believe that, "the executives placing AI in the most prominent position is to give the market a precautionary message; AI is the treasure that will uphold their valuation moving forward."

So, what is the true status of the AI business, which is seen as a lifeline?

3. The Time-Limited Transformation of 3GW Power Assets

A $76 million annualized revenue sounds nice, but this is merely the "expected run rate."

The official calculation involves multiplying the GPU order revenue from the last day of the period by 365, not the actual revenue received for the year.

The actual realized revenue for AI Cloud in the first quarter was only $3.7 million, accounting for less than 2% of total revenue.

Bitdeer’s real trump card is that 3GW power network.

They are in the process of transforming some of their mining machine rooms into AI computing power centers:

Norway's Tydal, Washington’s Wenatchee, and Tennessee’s Knoxville are already dismantling mining machines and redesigning.

Texas Rockdale and Norway's Molde are also currently in the evaluation stage.

The biggest bombshell is in Ohio.

There is a Clarington project planned with a capacity of 570MW, which accounts for 46% of Bitdeer's construction pipeline capacity.

Currently, a steel plant (American Heavy Plate Solutions) has taken them to court, requesting the court to permanently prohibit construction on the grounds of interference with shared power and roads.

Another obstacle is the $1.3 billion debt on the books.

This batch of convertible bonds will mature in 2029, 2031, and 2032 respectively.

Industry insiders point out: "If the lawsuit delays the delivery of the data center, it will directly collide with the debt maturity, leaving a very narrow window for the transformation of this 3GW power."

The market is also backing its position with real money.

Needham has set a target price of $19, while Keefe Bruyette has slashed their target price directly from $26.5 to $14.

Bitdeer's June data is actually a microcosm of the entire mining industry.

Bitcoin is still being mined, and even more is being mined, but no one wants "mining company" written on their business cards anymore.

And for a company that started from wind farms and hydroelectric plants, this transformation is about tearing off the "mining company" label.

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