Everyone is focused on the myth of Changxin Technology achieving a market value of 3.3 trillion yuan on its first day of listing, but digging deeper, the layers of logic behind the capital frenzy are worth discussing:
1) The true pricing of Changxin Technology by the capital market is not simply a "domestic replacement story." Essentially, it breaks the decades-long near-monopolistic pattern of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, forming the fourth pole in the global DRAM market.
The three giants previously held a market share of over 90% for a long time, with pricing power highly concentrated, and the cyclical ups and downs were almost dominated by their production schedules and inventory strategies. As Changxin Technology started from scratch and its global market share rose to about 7.7%–8% by the first quarter of 2026, while the three giants shifted their most advanced production capacity largely to high-margin HBM, the supply of general DRAM (for mobile phones, computers, and ordinary servers) was systematically squeezed, and Changxin just happened to fill this structural gap.
Additionally, the Chinese market already has the capability to change supply and demand and price elasticity, the emergence of Changxin's fourth pole can compress the joint price control space of the three giants, which is the underlying logic of how the capital market is truly pricing Changxin Technology;
2) There are stories circulating that the state-owned assets in Hefei have outperformed ten years of land sales in terms of industrial investment returns, but more importantly, the successful investment examples of Hefei state-owned assets may rewrite the capital valuation and market appeal of the semiconductor sector in A-shares.
Previously, the storage sector on the Science and Technology Innovation Board had long been "designed but without leading manufacturing," with institutions (pension funds, index funds, foreign capital) lacking major market value anchors that could be allocated within a global framework. The sample effect of Changxin proves to the market that the hard technology sector in A-shares is not just a story of high volatility and small market capitalization; it can also nurture leading manufacturing entities like Changxin that can be compared with global peers.
This undoubtedly lowers the financing difficulty for subsequent large projects, allowing the A-share Science and Technology Innovation Board, mainly driven by retail investors and themes, to tilt more towards institutionalization and performance-driven approaches, somewhat breeding more investment opportunities in the subsequent A-share Science and Technology Innovation Board, attracting more long-term capital to continue entering;
3) Of course, some people are worried that the exaggerated valuation of Changxin Technology in the short term might cause lingering blood-sucking impacts like that of PetroChina and SMIC in history. After all, @SpaceX has left a chilling impact on the entire US stock AI technology sector.
However, the circulating share on the first day of Changxin was only about 6.7% (about 4.5 billion shares), with over 90% locked, and with no limit on price fluctuations in the first five days, the very small tradable chips are chased by massive capital, naturally forming a high premium "scarce asset" pricing.
The significant drop of Zhaoyi Innovation, which previously enjoyed Changxin's premium, today indicates that the market's expectations are starting to shift from "concept" to "real manufacturing leaders." In the short term, this will definitely suck blood from other older, more concept-driven stocks, but in the long term, the shift of funds from stories to real manufacturing leaders with actual production capacity is not a bad thing. Perhaps under the new structural repricing trend, a batch of value stocks with real production capacity and supply chain demand will be rediscovered.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
