Source: BIT Securities

Last night, AI trading encountered a wave of indiscriminate selling.

The two leading sectors that had been driving growth—storage chips and optical communication—collectively crashed overnight: SanDisk and SK Hynix fell over 9%, Micron dropped more than 7%, Coherent and CoreWeave plummeted over 12%, Nebius fell over 7%, and almost all other companies related to the AI narrative also witnessed declines, unable to escape.

The trigger for all this was OpenAI's Q2 revenue.

1. OpenAI's Report Card: Growth Doesn't Keep Up with Valuation

OpenAI's second-quarter data disclosed to investors shows that quarterly revenue increased from $5.7 billion to $6.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 18%.

Near $7 billion in quarterly revenue is remarkable for any startup. However, OpenAI's situation is unique—beyond a sky-high valuation, there are financing plans and IPO expectations behind it, and the market's expectations have never been "good," but rather "impressive." The 18% quarter-on-quarter growth led some investors to reassess the match between its growth and valuation. What truly raised eyebrows in the market was the losses. The operating loss for the second quarter expanded from $9.3 billion to $12.3 billion, with the bleeding speed outpacing revenue growth. As this figure includes stock-based compensation, the distance from profitability targets seems even farther, prompting investors to rethink its financial path before going public.

In summary, this report card shows: revenue is rising, but not fast enough; the hole is widening, and it is expanding faster.

2. Macroeconomic Variables

Aside from negative factors on the company level, the macro environment has also changed simultaneously.

The first comes from the bond market. The U.S. Treasury sell-off has accelerated, with the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds climbing to around 5.3%, setting a new record high since 2007. Treasury yields are the anchor for financing costs across the entire market—when the anchor rises, the interest on corporate bonds must also increase, putting pressure on companies that rely on debt to support R&D investments.

The second comes from macro expectations. This month’s Jackson Hole global central banking annual meeting is the first public appearance of new Federal Reserve Chairman Waller. The market is uncertain about his policy tone, prompting early hedges in a "hawkish" direction. Additionally, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is about to expire, leading to a spike in oil prices recently, causing inflation expectations to rise as well.

3. The Nature of the Market Has Changed

Combining company-level and macro-level factors, the logic behind last night's decline becomes complete: the AI narrative remains a primary focus for U.S. stocks in the short to medium term, which no one denies; however, the phase of "everything goes up" has turned a page.

The characteristics of the upcoming market will be very clear—high-profile sectors like storage chips and optical modules will experience significantly amplified volatility in response to sudden news. A piece of financing news, a report with an unexpected loss, an auction of Treasury bonds with surging yields could lead to swings of 10% in a single day.

For risk-averse funds, following Buffett’s allocation and buying into established giants like Google remains a more cautious option: strong cash flow, no overextended valuations, and AI investments can directly connect to existing commercialization outlets.

4. Contrarian View: Bank of America Believes Nvidia is Undervalued by Up to 50%

Notably, amidst the panic, some institutions remain firmly bullish.

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya stated in a recent research report that the market may currently be overestimating the risks associated with the AI investment cycle, and Nvidia's valuation level may be undervalued by 34% to 50%. He reaffirmed a "buy" rating and maintained a target price of $350.

Arya acknowledged that the overall pressure on AI concept stocks has its background—investors continuously worry about a slowdown in AI infrastructure investments, corporate AI commercialization progress, and high valuation pressures. However, Bank of America’s judgment is that the market’s pricing of these risks has already overdone it. Nvidia still occupies a core position in AI computing infrastructure, with product power in GPUs, software ecosystem barriers, and deep partnerships with cloud vendors, collectively providing it the foundation for continued benefit from the growth in computing demand. The market's doubts about the sustainability of the AI cycle, in fact, obscure this company’s long-term growth potential.

5. Final Words

Last night's broad decline was essentially a reassessment of the AI narrative by the market: OpenAI's ledger indicates that the burn rate is far from over, the 5.3% yield on U.S. Treasury bonds suggests that money is no longer cheap, and Bank of America's report indicates that the panic itself may also be mispriced.

Three forces will continuously grapple in the upcoming market, and volatility will become the norm. For investors, the ride on the AI train has indeed passed the phase where one can sit with their eyes closed.

Disclaimer: This article is written by an external author, and the information, views, analysis, and judgments contained herein represent the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect the position, views, or investment advice of BIT. This article is for general information and investor education purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice, investment recommendation, trading commitment, or guarantee of returns for any securities, digital assets, or other financial products. The market data, institutional views, valuations, and target prices mentioned are for reference only and may change with market conditions; BIT does not guarantee their completeness, accuracy, or timeliness. Investment involves risks, and market prices may experience significant fluctuations. Investors should make independent judgments and prudent decisions based on their circumstances.

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