Author: Coinstack

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Overview: The inflation data cooling should benefit risk assets, but the spot Bitcoin ETF has seen the largest single-week capital outflow in six weeks, compounded by the sudden delay of the regulatory agenda, indicating a shift in market risk appetite. This week, the Trump crypto summit and the Jackson Hole conference will be key variables, as this article breaks down the market status from the perspectives of capital flow, on-chain data, and narratives.

🗓️ August 18, 2026, Tuesday | Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Bitcoin closed at approximately $62,800 on Sunday, with a weekly decline of around 3%, marking the worst single-week performance in six weeks.

The spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $389.7 million from August 10 to 14, the largest single-week outflow in six weeks.

The July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, in line with market expectations.

The SEC abruptly canceled the vote on the "Crypto Regulatory Framework" scheduled for August 14, with the first formal proposal postponed.

Strategy sold an additional 1,690 BTC, cashing out $108.6 million and financing $653 million through new stock.

Key events this week: Trump crypto summit (August 19), FOMC minutes (August 20), Jackson Hole conference (August 27-29).

1. Weekly Insights

This week revealed a disjointed phenomenon that will affect September's market. The July CPI and PPI figures released on Wednesday and Thursday both softened, which would traditionally suggest a Bitcoin price increase. However, the reality is that the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $389.7 million, the largest outflow in six weeks; BTC dropped around 3%; the "CLARITY Act," "Crypto Regulatory Framework," and tokenization exemptions all stalled within the same 72-hour window. Institutional allocators are reducing risk before the Jackson Hole conference rather than chasing rate cut trades based on inflation data.

Here’s what cryptocurrency investors need to understand in the coming week…

Awaiting next week's results.

👉 Last week’s voting result: Option 3—regulation ("CLARITY Act") leads with 43.75% of the votes.

3. Weekly Market Dashboard

Chart: Weekly Market Dashboard | As of August 16, 2026 (Sunday) | Data Source: CoinGecko, SoSoValue, Alternative.me

Best Performing Major Coin: Ethereum (down 1.8%)

ETH was the strongest performer among major coins this week, closing at approximately $1,874 on Sunday. The cooling inflation data and lighter selling pressure on ETH ETFs allowed its decline to be relatively shallow among the four largest coins.

Worst Performing Major Coin: XRP (down 3.5%)

XRP fell to $0.99, breaching the $1.00 mark due to the CLARITY Act debate probability dropping to 19%, and the XRP ETF saw only a modest inflow of $2.25 million for the week.

This Week's Market Drivers

The CPI and PPI softening did not trigger a rebound, as ETF outflows resumed and the SEC delayed the voting on the "Crypto Regulatory Framework," continuing the tone of institutional risk aversion.

Bitcoin Price Movement: August 10 to August 16, 2026

Chart: Bitcoin Price Movement | August 10 to August 16, 2026 | Source: CoinGecko Historical Data

4. This Week's Major Story

Moderate Inflation Data, Spot BTC ETF Still Sees Outflows of Nearly $390 Million

What Happened

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $389.7 million in net outflows from August 10 to 14, according to SoSoValue data, marking the largest single-week outflow in six weeks. The Ethereum ETF also experienced a slight net outflow of $2.26 million during the same period. The Solana ETF, on the other hand, recorded a contrary inflow of $10.26 million (the largest single-day inflow since May on August 10).

Why It Matters

The outflow of capital occurred against a backdrop of cooling inflation data. Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch reduced the September rate hike probability to 42%, and yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities fell. However, allocators continued to withdraw funds. As of August 14, the total net asset value of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was approximately $76.6 billion.

Investor Takeaway

Watch whether the outflow continues leading up to the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 27-29. If Chairman Warsh signals a dovish stance, the capital flow should reverse quickly. If BTC outflows exceed $200 million for the second consecutive week, it will confirm a broader risk-off cycle has begun.

Chart: U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Daily Net Inflow | August 3 to August 14 | Source: SoSoValue

5. Key Market Dynamics

5.1 July CPI Falls to 3.4%, Core PPI at 4.2%

What Happened

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations. Core CPI year-on-year fell to 2.5%. Producer prices remained flat, with Core PPI rising 4.2% year-on-year, consistent with expectations.

Two consecutive moderate data readings reinforced the case for a pause in interest rate hikes in September, lowering bond yields and providing mid-term support for risk assets.

Both pieces of data were “in line with expectations” rather than “below expectations.” The three dissenting voices at the July 29 FOMC have not softened their public stance, with overall inflation firmly remaining above the 2% target.

Chart: Actual vs Expected Inflation Values for July 2026 | Source: BLS CPI and PPI Release (August 12, 13)

5.2 SEC Cancels Vote on "Crypto Regulatory Framework"

What Happened

The SEC canceled the scheduled public meeting for August 14 regarding the "Crypto Regulatory Framework," which is its first formal set of crypto-specific rules. Another tokenization innovation exemption has also been indefinitely postponed.

The proposal has only been postponed, not withdrawn. The CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee will meet on August 20, potentially addressing the regulatory vacuum in commodity-related cryptocurrencies.

As the "CLARITY Act" debate is set to cease by September 15 and is unlikely to garner 60 votes, both legislative and regulatory pathways have stalled within the same two weeks.

Chart: U.S. Crypto Policy Pathways | Setbacks and Catalysts | Source: CoinDesk, Congress.gov, Kansas City Fed

5.3 Trump to Meet Crypto CEOs at the White House on August 19

What Happened

President Trump is expected to attend a meeting on Wednesday with executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Kalshi, Chainlink Labs, and a16z. SEC Chair Atkins, CFTC Chair Selig, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick are also expected to participate.

This event is a precursor to the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee's first meeting on August 20, indicating the administration's intention to continue advancing crypto policy.

It is merely a gesture, not a vote. Despite this summit, the probability of the "CLARITY Act" passing by 2026 remains at 19% on Polymarket.

Chart: White House Crypto Summit | August 19, 2026

6. On-Chain Data Insights

BTC and Stablecoins Comprise 73% of the Top 20 Market Cap

According to CoinStats' aggregated data on August 15, the total market cap of the top 20 cryptocurrencies is $2.087 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 60.84%, Ethereum for 10.88%, and USDT+USDC combined for approximately 12.2%.

What the Data Indicates

Nearly three-quarters of the value among the top 20 coins is now concentrated in Bitcoin and dollar-pegged stablecoins.

What This Might Mean

Capital is in a defensive state, rather than exiting the market. Altcoins have shown narrow and independent increases (such as Chainlink, Curve, Worldcoin), rather than a generalized surge. From a structural perspective, an alt-season is unlikely to occur before the proportion of stablecoins shrinks.

Chart: U.S. Crypto ETF Weekly Net Inflows | August 10 to August 14, 2026 | Source: SoSoValue

7. Narrative Observations

Jackson Hole Positioning

Why It’s Being Watched

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver his first post-appointment Jackson Hole speech on August 27-29, following the July 29 meeting which maintained interest rates at 9 to 3. Traders are seeking clear signals regarding the September FOMC meeting.

Why It Might Heat Up

Two pieces of moderate inflation data and a decline in non-farm employment by 23,000 in July provide cover for Warsh to adopt a dovish stance. Historically, the crypto market tends to lead the Fed's shifts by two to six weeks.

Why It Might Cool Down

Since taking office, Warsh has reduced the Fed’s forward guidance, and three hawkish dissenters continue to voice their positions. If he adopts a cautious tone, it could trigger a “sell the fact” reaction.

Chart: Focus on Jackson Hole | August 27-29

8. This Week’s Investment Theme

Solana ETF Quietly Differentiates

The U.S. spot Solana ETF attracted $10.26 million last week. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum funds are experiencing outflows. As of August 14, the SOL ETF has accumulated net inflows of $1.16 billion.

Solana's mainnet upgrade on August 17 is the first step in reducing slot times to approximately 350 milliseconds. The market anticipates more Solana ETF applications. The tokenized equity stake on Solana continues to enhance actual usage.

👉 Read the Solana August 17 release overview here.

Solana Labs reported a loss of $30.3 million due to SOL write-downs in the second quarter. If BTC falls below $60,000, the correlation may weigh on SOL, even with the inflow narrative.

Chart: Solana ETF Quietly Differentiates | Accumulated Net Inflows Close to $1.16 Billion

9. Smart Crypto Insights

Understanding the Divergence in ETF Capital Flows

When the Bitcoin ETF experiences outflows while Solana, XRP, and HYPE ETFs see inflows, the signal indicates rotation, not exit. As of the week ending August 14, three of the six crypto ETF categories tracked by SoSoValue recorded net inflows. The dollar is hovering near recent lows.

For serious investors, the pattern is as follows. Amid mixed data, when BTC leads the outflows, allocators typically rebalance. They shift towards smaller asymmetrical opportunities rather than liquidating their crypto exposure. Track SoSoValue’s weekly category snapshots instead of relying solely on BTC headline numbers.

10. This Week’s Quick News

Cboe BZX applied to list 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This adds leverage to an already crowded long position.

Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC, bringing in $108.6 million. This marks its fourth reduction in 2026.

Coldcard漏洞盗贼的被盗总额升至1,816个BTC（约1.16亿美元）。超过5,200个地址受影响。

Circle's Arc mainnet is still planned for launch on September 16, with 11 founding validators.

Riot's Bitcoin mining platform has signed a 20-year lease worth $9.1 billion with a leading cutting-edge AI lab in the Rockdale facility.

11. Closing Thoughts on the Macro

In mid-August, a rare situation arose: inflation softening, a softer labor market, softer regulation, yet risk assets did not rise. This indicates that allocators are awaiting the Jackson Hole conference rather than acting counter to the trend. If Chairman Warsh acknowledges labor deterioration, a repricing in September is likely to come before the FOMC meeting.

The next two weeks will test whether Warsh pivots dovishly or maintains his position, and whether the CLARITY Act can pass through its September window before the midterm election cycle closes.

Coinstack publishes every Tuesday. Any content in this newsletter does not constitute financial or investment advice. All information is derived from public data and should be independently verified.

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