Author: Trader Bazinga

Today, the U.S. Treasury Department announced an expansion of the long-term bond buyback program by at least double, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to drop to 5.18% today. (The data in the chart is delayed and not real-time data.) The expansion of the long-term bond buyback is not a large scale, but the policy signal is significant — with Waller taking office and not caring about long-term bond rates, I will take charge of it. There remains an irreconcilable contradiction with long-term bond rates. Essentially, the expansion of the buyback means that the money previously borrowed by issuing long-term bonds is being repaid early.

Moreover, expanding the Treasury bond buyback can only delay the upward trend of interest rates rather than change structural problems, because the fundamental contradiction has not been resolved — who will bear the increasing debt of the United States? The result of forcibly intervening in interest rates is a short-term benefit for high-risk and high-volatility assets, but it will bring a new round of de-dollarization in the long term. At this time, going long on long-term bonds/shorting the dollar/going long on gold/going long on Bitcoin is a similar trading strategy expression; just choose one. Choosing to go long on gold or Bitcoin is relatively easier. Personally, I chose Bitcoin, as it has consolidated long enough at the bottom, and this narrative is enough to change the fundamental narrative.

Perhaps this time it really is different. In my last article, I mentioned there were three factors that ignited this rally, represented by SanDisk, from 1250 to 1800. My personal bottom-buying was at 1270; I won't boast, I didn't catch the SanDisk segment from 1550 to 1800, which was the segment called out by Musk; I exited all my positions at 1550. I didn't participate afterward. In the last article, I urged everyone not to short, and suddenly SanDisk dropped from 1800 to choose 1580, a decline of as much as 13%.

Some brothers might think I'm inexperienced; that’s fine, I definitely still have a lot of room for improvement. If I could capture every wave, the title of stock god wouldn’t belong to Buffett anymore. The reason I dislike shorting is simple: 1. The depreciation of fiat currency is inevitable; 2. Mathematically speaking, the profits from going long are simply greater than those from shorting. You can ask AI to elaborate on these two reasons; I won't go into detail. Today, the strongman announced a buyback and destruction of 40 trillion won worth of stocks, and the strongman rebounded about 10% from today's low, but now the increase has returned to almost half. Every time the strongman drops about 10%, there’s some good news, the management of this company is quite interesting; last time, it was President Choi announcing increased holdings, and this time it’s a company buyback, but the impact on the market has been getting weaker.

How will storage move next? I still hold my original view temporarily; it can't reach new highs, and 2300 for SanDisk is very likely to be the high point of the last 5 years. Many brothers might counter my viewpoint; you can leave comments opposing me, but I won’t battle with you in this article because it's almost midnight, and I need to finish writing today. Deadline is the primary productivity. Today is August 19, last year on this day I started the 1000 yuan challenge, and I'm currently profiting 10250 U, about 73 times. Will it reach 1000 times next year? Can it reach 10,000 times in 5 years? When it does, I will come to dig a grave.

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