1. Macro: The Effect of US Treasury Buyback "Medicine" Lasted Only One Day

The day before yesterday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced it would double the scale of its long-term treasury buyback operations to 4 billion dollars, intending to curb the surging treasury yields. However, the effect of this "medicine" lasted only one day—the 30-year treasury yield quickly rose again, and the 10-year yield also increased simultaneously.

What is even more noteworthy is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant issued a new signal yesterday: possible further increases in treasury buyback efforts, while preparing to launch a new fiscal restructuring plan, potentially in collaboration with the Federal Reserve to jointly address bond market pressures and issues related to the Fed's holdings of treasury bonds.

Potential Impact on the Market: If the treasury buybacks continue to increase, it means that liquidity in the market will rise again, putting further pressure on the dollar. For risk assets priced in dollars (including cryptocurrencies), this typically constitutes a mid-term bullish support—but caution is warranted regarding potential "profit-taking" volatility after expected trades, and blind chasing of rallies should be avoided.

2. ETH: Significant Resistance Above on the 4-Hour Chart, Increased Risks for Chasing Highs

From a technical perspective, ETH is currently in a short-term structurally pressured state:

• 4-Hour Level: There is obvious resistance above in the market, and the upward price space is temporarily limited;

• Hourly Level: The rhythm of the upward fluctuation segment has begun to slow down; although this wave of segment has not yet completed, the marginal momentum is weakening is an undeniable fact.

A More Cautious Operational Thought: Instead of hastily opening new positions at the current high levels, it is better to wait for a pullback adjustment and observe the signals after a correction to the 2250–2220 range before making a decision. The situation of volume and price after the correction will be more valuable for reference than "chasing the rise."

3. Storage Sector: SanDisk Consolidating at Low Levels, SK Hynix Testing the Neckline

SanDisk: Short-Term Range Narrowing to 1625–1534

On the 4-hour and hourly levels, SanDisk is still in a low-level horizontal oscillation amidst a downward adjustment trend, and the expectations for downward adjustments have not been fully released. The short-term oscillation range has narrowed to 1625–1534. It is wiser to maintain patience and wait for clearer stabilization signals to appear.

SK Hynix: Testing the 4-Hour Head and Shoulders Bottom Neckline

SK Hynix is currently testing the neck-line pressure of the 4-hour head and shoulders bottom pattern, which is a critical point for the formation of the pattern. The reference thoughts are as follows:

• Wait for 4-hour stabilization at 1270, then consider setting up long positions;

• If established, one can wait for opportunities after pullback confirmation;

• Once involved, stop loss should be placed below 1220 to strictly control downside risk;

• Targets above to focus on are 1393 and 1478.

Head and shoulders bottoms are potential reversal patterns, requiring valid breakthroughs and pullback confirmations of the neckline; if they fail, the pattern is invalidated, and it is crucial to prioritize stop-loss discipline.

Summary in One Sentence: Marginal macro liquidity is biased towards bullishness, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing ETH highs in the short term is low, with the key lying in the signals after the pullback; the storage sector shows obvious differentiation, with SanDisk on the right side and SK Hynix focusing on the neckline. No matter what the variety, stop-loss discipline is always the top priority.

• If you want to know more details and specific operations, see you in the live room tonight, we will analyze the market live, and watch the K-line discuss the logic.

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