Bitcoin is approaching a technical level that has often separated bear-market rallies from durable recoveries.

Galaxy Research examined every completed bitcoin bear market since 2011 using a mechanical definition: a closing drawdown of at least 50% that lasted at least 90 days. The study found six completed bear markets, plus the current decline.

Across those completed cycles, bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average 13 times. 11 of those moves held without the cryptocurrency later setting a lower closing low.

Galaxy Research stated:

“All eyes on bitcoin’s 50-week moving average.”

The level currently sits near $82,470. Bitcoin is trading around $77,190, about 30% above its June 30 low and roughly 6% below the weekly average, as of August 22, 8:50 ET.

The research found that bitcoin’s 50-day moving average provides quicker signals, but with far more false starts. Across the six completed bear markets, 43 of 106 reclaims of the 50-day average failed. More notably, the first 50-day reclaim failed in every bear market studied.

The 2013-2015 downturn offered the starkest example. Bitcoin crossed above the 50-day average 13 times before eventually reaching its final low. Some rallies remained above the level for nearly two months before reversing.

Source: Galaxy Research

By contrast, the eventual 50-week reclaim held for 945 days. “A bottom always produces a 50d reclaim, but a 50d reclaim does not prove a bottom,” Galaxy said.

The only two failed 50-week reclaims occurred during bitcoin’s 2021-2022 double-top cycle, in December 2021 and March 2022. Bitcoin later fell to $15,758.

The trade-off is timing.

In bitcoin’s three longer bear markets, the first successful 50-week reclaim arrived between 130 and 284 days after the low. By then, BTC had already rallied between 63% and 80%.

The 2011 cycle was even more extreme. Bitcoin reclaimed the weekly average 51 days after bottoming, but had already gained 237%.

There are also exceptions. Bitcoin never fell below its 50-week moving average during the sharp 2013 downturn, while the May 2019 reclaim was followed by volatility around the Covid crash without a new bear-market low.

That makes the indicator useful, but not definitive.

For the current cycle, the conclusion is straightforward: the recent recovery is encouraging, but the stronger historical confirmation sits above $82,000. A weekly close back over that level would add weight to the argument that bitcoin’s June low marked the bottom. Until then, history says the recovery remains unconfirmed.

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