As long as the underlying narrative is unbreakable, and as long as positions are still growing through compound interest, any dream will eventually be realized.

Written by: Liu Jiaolian

BTC is consolidating around 77k. River Company has released a report estimating Bitcoin's price in five years: 840,000 dollars. [1]

River is a financial services company focused exclusively on Bitcoin. This report urges investors to allocate 10% of their total assets to Bitcoin.

However, remember while reading the report: the business of this company will also determine its stance. The butt decides the brain; even if it doesn’t decide the brain, it will decide the mouth.

Arithmetic

River's deduction consists of three steps.

The first step is to look at the starting point. About 4% of the global population owns Bitcoin, while Wall Street investment advisors have an overall allocation of only 0.008%. Of the top 30 registered investment advisors in the US, 29 already hold Bitcoin, with a median allocation of only 0.1%. The starting point is extremely low. From another perspective, this also means that the potential growth space is still huge.

The second step is to look at the trend. According to Bitwise's survey in 2025, the proportion of advisors allocating to crypto assets increased from 22% to 32% in one year, with another 56% considering it. Even if it continues at only half the speed, in three to five years, four to five out of ten advisors will be entering the market. [1]

The third step is to calculate the total amount. Global financial assets are approximately 333 trillion dollars; taking a 20% to 40% allocation with an average allocation of 2% to 4%, the capital inflow is 1.3 trillion to 5.3 trillion dollars. Jiaolian calculated that the lower value equals 333 trillion multiplied by 20% multiplied by 2%, while the higher value equals multiplied by 40% multiplied by 4%, which is not wrong.

The Multiplier is Key

How did capital inflow of several trillion dollars lead to a price of 840,000 dollars per coin? There is a key multiplication in between.

Financial markets are not completely elastic. When new money comes in and old chips are not sold, the price increase must exceed the inflow itself. Two economists from Harvard conducted a statistical analysis in the US stock market, finding that for every dollar invested, the total market value increases by about five dollars.

The same rule applies to Bitcoin. From 2015 to 2017, a net inflow of one dollar resulted in a market value increase of 4.5 dollars; from 2018 to 2021, it was 3.3 dollars; from 2022 to 2025, it dropped to 3.1 dollars.

River made a careless eye. In its report, it conservatively estimated a multiplier of 3 times; based on the capital inflow of 1.3 trillion to 5.3 trillion dollars, it estimated a market value increase of 5.5 trillion to 17.5 trillion dollars, divided by a total of 21 million BTC, giving a single coin price range of 250,000 to 840,000 dollars. [1]

A simple calculation: 1.3 trillion multiplied by 3 equals 3.9 trillion, plus the current market value of about 1.6 trillion, resulting in a lower value of 5.5 trillion. 5.3 trillion multiplied by 3 equals 15.9 trillion, adding to 1.6 trillion gives a higher value of 17.5 trillion. Dividing both numbers by 21 million results in 262,000 and 833,000, and the report may have rounded it to 250,000 and 840,000 (although this rounding operation is somewhat strange).

The Model Exists, But It Is Not Rigorously Constructed

The model's lack of rigor mainly has three aspects.

First, the multiplier has been continuously decreasing in the past few cycles. From 4.5, to 3.3, to 3.1, it has been declining. The efficiency of past inflows in driving prices is decreasing; the larger the market, the heavier the selling pressure. By extrapolating the trend, future values of 2.8 or 2.9 would be more realistic; a multiplier of 3 is already an overly optimistic assumption.

Second, the model assumes that old holders do not sell. If the price truly reaches 250,000 dollars, will early whales and miners cash out? Every bull market has seen high-level turnover. If institutional capital inflow estimates have considered the inflows minus outflows as net inflow, the key does not lie in the institutions' own entry and exit, but rather with ancient whales, those long-term holders of BTC, who will almost certainly sell and reduce their holdings as the price rises, which would offset a significant portion of institutional capital inflows.

Third, the 333 trillion base figure is a static snapshot, and the future will not remain unchanged. The 20% to 40% allocation and 2% to 4% configuration over three years or five years, the resulting figures are not stated in the report.

There is another layer of issue. The inflow range is calibrated using the sizes of funds from several past bull markets; multipliers have also been derived from historical data. Using these two to derive future prices is, in fact, another form of "carving a boat to seek a sword."

(Additional note: BTC has not been fully mined; estimating based on 21 million coins is also not entirely accurate. Of course, this error would lead to underestimation rather than overestimation.)

This Is Not a Prophecy, But a Direction

However, although the model and calculations in the River report have many flaws, it has articulated the logic of scarcity to the extreme. The largest financial institutions in the world are encouraging people to allocate to an asset that is almost owned by no one, and this asset's supply is locked by code, not a single coin more. Demand growth can only be absorbed through price. [1]

This scene seems familiar. Centuries ago with tulips, a hundred years ago with railroad stocks, every wave of asset frenzy has similar arithmetic behind it. The difference is that Bitcoin's supply cap is written in code—21 million, neither more nor less. Yet the underlying narrative of BTC remains timeless and resilient.

Jiaolian has always respected the market and is willing to believe in the rules. Whether 840,000 dollars will be realized in five years is uncertain—perhaps more, perhaps less—but the direction of scarcity is likely hard to reverse. The road stretches far and wide; every step taken leads to a thousand miles.

Looking back five years from now, today's 70,000 dollars, 80,000 dollars, or even over 200,000 dollars, 800,000 dollars, or even 1,000,000 dollars, are merely markers on the growth curve, footprints along the journey of a thousand miles.

The secret to investing is to outlive others. More importantly than when the price reaches a certain height is whether this path, this direction can continue to extend. As long as the underlying narrative is unbreakable, and as long as positions are still growing through compound interest, any dream will eventually be realized.