The market has already absorbed Japan's interest rate hike, with risks arising after September.

The Bank of Japan is increasingly leaning towards raising interest rates by 25 basis points in the meeting ending on September 18, increasing the policy rate from 1% to 1.25%.

The likelihood of a 50 basis point hike is still low, as the Japanese economy currently aligns with the central bank's previous forecasts, and there have been no significant changes requiring a major rate increase. However, the weakening yen, rising oil prices, and accelerating service inflation have made it difficult for the Bank of Japan to remain patient.

If the rate hike occurs in September, it will be only three months since the last hike, marking the shortest interval between two rate increases since Ueda Kazuo took office as the Bank of Japan Governor in April 2023.

The market has already prepared extensively for this rate hike, so a 25 basis point increase itself might not cause significant impact. Rather, a sudden pause by the Bank of Japan could result in severe fluctuations for the yen, Japanese government bonds, and global markets.

The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has already surpassed 3%, increasing the attractiveness of domestic bonds. If the Bank of Japan hints at possible further action in October or December, the repatriation of Japanese funds, contraction of yen carry trades, and a decline in global liquidity could all pose risks to the market.

For U.S. stocks and Bitcoin, Japan entering a faster interest rate hike cycle could have a greater impact than the rate hike itself.

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