Written by: Rita

The cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen by 34% so far in the third quarter, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its earnings forecasts and price targets for brokerage and cryptocurrency-related companies. On September 8, Goldman Sachs released a report on American brokerages and the cryptocurrency industry, adjusting the average third-quarter expected revenue for the covered group by 10% based on updated quarterly data, with the median earnings per share for 2026 raised by 1% and the median target price-to-earnings ratio increased by 3.0 times. The median expected total return for the group is currently +3%. Although trading volume remains low compared to the previous quarter, the revenue growth from custodial, staking, and stablecoin services, driven by market capitalization revaluation, has become the main catalyst for raising forecasts.

The impact of the rise in cryptocurrency market capitalization on brokerage and cryptocurrency companies' revenues is multifaceted. In addition to direct gains and losses from digital assets, custodial and staking revenues are linked to market capitalization, while stablecoin revenues are linked to stablecoin market capitalization. Even if trading volume has not fully recovered, the rise in market capitalization itself can drive upward revenue forecast revisions.

34% Increase in Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization Raises Revenue Forecasts

Goldman Sachs updated its cryptocurrency data for the third quarter to date in the report. Cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 34%, the USDC balance at the end of the period rose 1% quarter-on-quarter, while the average balance fell by 5%. August's trading volume rebounded 16% month-on-month, although the industry's average trading volume so far in the third quarter is still down 8% quarter-on-quarter. Based on this, Goldman Sachs adjusted the revenue forecasts for several companies, raising the average expected revenue for the covered group by 10% for the third quarter.

Specific adjustments include: raising staking and custodial revenues to reflect higher cryptocurrency market capitalizations; raising stablecoin revenues to reflect higher stablecoin market capitalizations; raising digital asset gains and losses to reflect the earnings brought about by the increase in market capitalization; and slightly increasing trading volume forecasts due to industry and company-specific trading volumes being slightly stronger than previously expected.

From the perspective of individual stocks, COIN's third-quarter platform assets were raised from $269 billion to $288 billion, an increase of 7%. Trading volume increased from $127 billion to $138.5 billion, a rise of 9%.

BTGO's platform assets were raised from $6.2 billion to $6.6 billion, an increase of 5%. Trading volume rose from $4.1 billion to $4.5 billion, an increase of 10%.

CRCL's platform assets were raised from $2.73 billion to $2.76 billion, an increase of 1%. Trading volume was lowered from $900 million to $800 million, a decrease of 9%.

ETOR's platform assets remained unchanged at $1.91 billion, while trading volume was raised from $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion, an increase of 39%.

GEMI's platform assets were lowered from $100 million to $90 million, a decrease of 7%. Trading volume was raised from $27 million to $37 million, an increase of 2%.

GLXY's platform assets were raised from $9.1 billion to $9.5 billion, an increase of 7%. Trading volume increased from $790 million to $800 million, an increase of 2%.

Goldman Sachs stated that these adjustments reflect the rise in cryptocurrency market capitalization and stablecoin market capitalization, as well as the marginal improvement in trading volume.

Trading Volume Remains Weak, but Rebounds in August

Despite the significant rise in market capitalization, trading volume remains at a low level. The industry's average trading volume so far in the third quarter is down 8% quarter-on-quarter, and market activity has not fully recovered. August's trading volume rebounded 16%, indicating signs of marginal improvement.

The weakness in trading volume contrasts with the rise in market capitalization. The increase in market capitalization is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions and the rebound in cryptocurrency asset prices. In contrast, trading volume is constrained by retail participation and market sentiment. Goldman Sachs has slightly raised its trading volume forecasts due to industry and company-specific trading volumes being slightly stronger than expected, but it still maintains a cautious stance overall.

From the revenue structure perspective, trading volume is crucial for brokerages and cryptocurrency companies. For platforms that rely primarily on trading fees, a decrease in trading volume will directly drag down revenues. For companies with custodial, staking, and stablecoin businesses, the rise in market capitalization can partially offset the impact of declining trading volume. Goldman Sachs' upward revisions to its forecasts are based on this logic.

Target Prices and Valuation Adjustments

Goldman Sachs raised the median target price-to-earnings ratio for the covered group from 29.5 times to 32.5 times, an increase of 3.0 times, to reflect higher market multiples. The median earnings per share for 2026 was raised by 1%, with a median expected total return of +3%.

Adjustments to individual stock target prices are as follows:

COIN's target price was raised from $196 to $219, an increase of 12%, maintaining a buy rating.

ETOR was raised from $32 to $36, an increase of 13%, maintaining a neutral rating.

GLXY was raised from $25 to $28, an increase of 12%, maintaining a neutral rating.

BTGO was raised from $6.50 to $7.25, an increase of 12%, maintaining a neutral rating.

CRCL was raised from $81 to $92, an increase of 14%, maintaining a neutral rating.

GEMI was raised from $3.50 to $4.00, an increase of 14%, maintaining a sell rating.

GLXY’s target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method. The digital asset segment uses a 24.0 times adjusted earnings per share for Q5-Q8, increased from the previous 23.0 times. The data center segment uses a 15.5 times adjusted EBITDA for Q5-Q8, increased from the previous 14.5 times. The enterprise segment uses a 1.0 times P/B ratio for Q5, remaining unchanged. All three adjustments reflect higher market multiples.

Median Expected Total Return +3%

Goldman Sachs currently expects the median total return for brokerages and cryptocurrency stocks to be +3%. This expectation is based on updated earnings forecasts and target price-to-earnings ratios. Goldman Sachs believes that the rise in cryptocurrency market capitalization and the marginal improvement in trading volume will drive stock prices to rise moderately. Trading volume remains lower than the previous quarter, and regulatory risks persist, limiting the upside potential.

Goldman Sachs recommends that investors focus on companies with diversified revenue sources, such as platforms with a high proportion of custodial, staking, and stablecoin businesses. These companies are better positioned to withstand trading volume fluctuations and benefit from rising market capitalization. For companies relying primarily on trading fees, the recovery of trading volume remains a key variable.

Disclaimer

This article is a compilation and interpretation of third-party brokerage research reports (Goldman Sachs, September 8, 2026) by潮向研究, combined with整理 of publicly available market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments quoted in the text reflect the views of the brokerage analysts and only represent the positions of their respective institutions, not the views of潮向研究, and do not constitute any investment advice.

Markets carry risks, and decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.