In a recent statistical period, according to a single research report, the weekly net outflow for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other ETPs totaled approximately 1.126 billion USD. Although the pace of net outflows has slightly slowed compared to the previous two weeks, the allocation of capital from institutional products is being withdrawn and observed; at the same time, the Alternative Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell from 69 the previous day to 56, indicating that sentiment has retreated from overheating to a moderately high "greed" range, without truly turning conservative. In this context of “capital withdrawal + sentiment still hot,” disparities have further widened: on one side, 21Shares analysts publicly continue to provide support for Bitcoin around 77,000 USD and a potential target of 100,000 USD, while on the other side, according to monitoring by Lookonchain, a certain whale address opened a long position of approximately 911.55 BTC with about 40x leverage, with a nominal value of about 70.08 million USD, and a liquidation price around 76,300 USD. Macro-wise, ETP holdings continue to weaken, while micro-wise, high-leverage long positions are being added, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in a tug-of-war phase of capital withdrawal versus aggressive betting.
ETP weekly outflow of 1.1 billion: institutional products are cooling off
According to a report from JPMorgan, in a recent statistical week, the combined net outflow of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other related ETPs was approximately 1.126 billion USD. Although the pace of net outflows has slightly slowed compared to the previous two weeks, it remains in a phase of capital withdrawal. This indicates that institutions have not re-opened large-scale subscriptions but rather that the selling pressure has weakened, and the capital dimension of ETPs remains relatively cold.
From daily data, the differences in temperature among different categories are evident. According to a single source, on a trading day close to the aforementioned period, the US spot Bitcoin ETP had a net outflow of about 175 million USD, while the Ethereum ETP recorded a net inflow of about 9 million USD, and the Solana ETP saw a net outflow of about 5 million USD. Bitcoin products remain the primary source of redemption, with Ethereum seeing slight support, while Solana continues to be reduced. This structural differentiation reflects a preference shift within the same asset class. The JPMorgan report also mentioned that the current concentration of ETP funds has significantly increased, with more funds flowing into a few categories or single products. Against this backdrop, the marginal subscriptions or redemptions of top products tend to be amplified in price performance. A single-week change of around 1 billion USD is sufficient to alter the market's overall impression of whether "institutions are accumulating or retreating."
Greed index falls from 69 to 56: sentiment returns from excitement to slightly hot
In contrast to the continued net outflows of ETP funds, data from a single source indicates that Alternative's published Crypto Fear and Greed Index has declined from 69 the previous day to 56 on the current day. This index ranges from 0 to 100, where a higher number represents more "greed": typically, a level around 70 is close to extreme excitement, while values above 50 up to 60 are considered a "slightly hot" greedy range. This indicates that sentiment has significantly cooled from the previous day's high excitement but has not yet fallen back to neutral, nor can it be said to be in a state of panic. The market overall remains in a state of “wanting to go long but starting to have reservations.”
In terms of composition, this index is not a single price or volume signal but integrates multiple data points with weighted measures: market volatility accounts for 25%, market trading volume for 25%, social media heat for 15%, market surveys for 15%, Bitcoin market cap for 10%, and Google search trend analysis for 10%. Therefore, it is closer to a "comprehensive emotional thermometer," reflecting the decline in volatility, changes in trading activity, and the fading of narrative heat simultaneously. Comparatively, with the total net outflow of about 1.126 billion USD for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETPs within a certain statistical week and faster outflows in the previous two weeks, the sentiment index only retreated from 69 to 56, indicating a certain misalignment between the pace of capital withdrawal and sentiment decline—while continuous redemptions are occurring at the price and product level, overall sentiment remains in a slightly greedy range, with investors more "downshifting" than "slamming on the brakes."
100,000 target price and 77,000 support: institutions betting on the fourth quarter
In the context of weekly net redemptions, 21Shares senior crypto research strategist Matt Mena presented a completely different pricing framework. According to his analysis, Bitcoin is currently supported around 77,000 USD, with a potential target reaching 100,000 USD; he clearly positions this price level as a forward-looking target range, rather than a price range that has been touched or is necessarily to be achieved. An important background supporting this judgment is that as of September 2026, the cumulative net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF remains around 603 million USD, indicating that these products have not seen “capital dry up,” but have instead undergone prior sustained incremental allocations.
Mena also mentioned that the risk appetite in the altcoin sector has recently recovered; in his view, this reflects a phase-wise repair of overall market sentiment, constituting a positive environmental variable for Bitcoin's performance in the fourth quarter. From this institutional perspective, in a certain statistical week, the total net outflow for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETPs of about 1.126 billion USD seems more like a rhythmic deleveraging and product rebalance, rather than a refutation of long-term allocation logic—differences in time dimensions and participant goals allow for the simultaneous existence of a “100,000 USD target price” and “continuing weekly net outflows from ETPs” within the same market.
40x leverage whale long: 70 million chips pressure near 76,300
In contrast to institutions being “optimistic but not all in” as described in reports, an extreme aggressive bet has appeared on-chain. According to monitoring by a single on-chain monitoring agency Lookonchain, one address opened a long position of approximately 911.55 BTC in the derivatives market, with a nominal value at the time calculated at around 70.08 million USD, using about 40x leverage, with a liquidation price marked near 76,300 USD. This address recently completed about 80 Bitcoin transactions, with a success rate of approximately 92.5%. Given this sample size is not too small, such a success rate amplifies the market's "signal perception" of its decisions, and this is one reason why this high-leverage long position has been particularly magnified.
However, from the position structure perspective, this resembles a highly risky short-term trade: at 40x leverage, just as the price approaches the liquidation area, it could trigger passive liquidation, amplifying market volatility in a very short time, and even exacerbating price tail risks during local liquidity shortages. It is important to emphasize that the current publicly available information only indicates that this long position was opened “approximately 10 hours ago," without a precise timestamp and lacking data on subsequent increases, decreases, or manual profit stops; the specific identity of this address is also unknown. Therefore, whether it is interpreted as “smart money betting on a rebound” or merely viewed as a single speculative action, there is significant uncertainty—it should be regarded as a high-risk position sample rather than a deterministic directional guide.
Simultaneous capital outflows and high-leverage longs: Who is betting against Bitcoin?
According to a single research report source, recently, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other three types of ETPs experienced a total net outflow of about 1.126 billion USD in a certain statistical week, while the US spot Bitcoin ETF also recorded a single-day net outflow of about 175 million USD, but as of September 2026, it remains in a cumulative net inflow status of about 603 million USD, indicating more of a rhythmic reduction in holdings rather than a collective “escape.” During the same period, the Alternative Fear and Greed Index fell from 69 to 56; sentiment has noticeably cooled yet remains in the greedy range. On one side, ETP holders are choosing to cash out or observe, while on the other side, 21Shares strategists provide forward-looking judgments for Bitcoin at approximately 77,000 USD support and a 100,000 USD target, with on-chain evidence of whales betting long at approximately 40x leverage and a liquidation price around 76,300 USD—there is a simultaneous amplification of the contrast between capital behaviors and expectations.
One possible explanation is that some institutions are gradually reducing their positions or locking in profits through ETPs, while on-chain participants with higher risk appetites are still betting on a mid-term rise in Bitcoin, reflecting a layered structure of participant demographics and risk preferences. From a quantitative perspective, the liquidation price of 76,300 USD aligns closely with the analyst support level of 77,000 USD. This price range may carry both the emotional inflection point for ETF investors and the risk explosion point for high-leverage positions in subsequent market trends, leading to a resonance area of risk and opportunity. Ongoing variables that need to be tracked include: whether the subsequent ETP subscription and redemption data shifts from net outflows to balance or even inflows, whether the fear and greed index further retreats or returns to extreme greed, and whether the whale address’s long position undergoes passive liquidation, increases, or active profit-taking, avoiding misinterpretation of these related signals as an inevitable causal chain.
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