Yesterday, the bears finally triggered a round of accelerated market movements, but after the price entered a key support area, buying pressure emerged once again. Currently, although the market has somewhat recovered, it has not escaped the overall bearish structure.
It is worth noting that the recovery strength of BTC and ETH has shown a clear divergence: **BTC's rebound is relatively weak, having not effectively broken the 30-minute pressure level; ETH temporarily surged at the 1-hour pressure level before retreating.** This indicates that ETH remains stronger than BTC in the short term, but behind this strength also lies new risks – long positions are becoming increasingly crowded.
From the perspective of funding rates, the weighted funding rate for BTC is about 0.009%, remaining in a relatively neutral zone; ETH is around 0.0111% to 0.0123%, clearly higher than BTC, indicating more positive sentiment among bulls.
What needs to be more cautiously monitored is that the current long-short ratio for ETH has reached 2.6179, above the common levels of crowding. When market long positions become excessively concentrated, a rebound may not signify safety, but rather easily turn into a window for liquidating leveraged long positions.
Today, important macro data will be released, and the risks of pinning before and after the data, false breakouts, and double kills in both long and short positions will increase significantly. At this stage, it is not appropriate to chase shorts near support, nor is it suitable to determine a trend reversal based solely on one rebound.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: Focus on high shorts, do not chase shorts, and support with low longs.
BTC is currently showing significant weakness, with its rebound falling noticeably behind ETH. However, there is still a technical repair requirement on the 30-minute and 60-minute charts, thus the cost-effectiveness of chasing shorts directly from this position has decreased.
76000—76300 remains a very critical demand area. This position has been tested multiple times, but buying pressure below still provides support, indicating that the bears need to genuinely break through this defense line to continue expanding the decline.
The more reasonable rhythm currently is:
Do not chase shorts near support → Wait for the short cycle to complete its repair → Seek high short opportunities when the rebound enters the pressure area.
If today's published data is significantly below market expectations, risk assets may suddenly spike quickly; at that time, it is especially crucial for short positions to pay attention to stop-loss and pinning risks.
Support: 76000-76300, 75600
Pressure: 77300-77800, 78500-79000
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
Viewpoint: Stronger in the short term than BTC, but crowded among bulls, focus on high shorts and support with low longs.
The biggest contradiction for ETH currently is: the price structure is relatively strong, but the contract longs are very crowded.
The large player long-short ratio is about 2.19, with institutional direction clearly biased towards longs; the retail long-short ratio, however, is at a relatively low level, showing that the market has seen capital layout first, followed by gradual participation from retail investors.
From a trend perspective, ETH's daily EMA30 and EMA60 remain upward, and the medium to long-term moving average structure has not been significantly damaged, so the larger cycle still retains the possibility of further upward movement.
But the short term cannot ignore the risk of leverage.
When both funding rates and long-short ratios rise simultaneously, if the price fails to break through the 2480—2500 or even 2520 area for a long time, it is easy to see **"price does not rise – more and more longs – sudden downward liquidation"** movements.
Therefore, caution is warranted in the rebound pressure areas; if a clear support emerges after a pullback to 2400—2430, one can reconsider low-buy opportunities. During the data release, there is a need for special caution against rapid pinning.
Support: 2400-2430, 2380, 2355
Pressure: 2480-2500, 2520-2550
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This article is originally published by 【Huijing Community】 and represents personal opinions only. Due to the certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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