I will share my personal views, but they do not represent that what I say is correct.

First of all, even during the Powell era, which was around April and May when the war between the United States and Iran had just begun, oil prices were higher than they are now, and inflation also experienced a continuous rebound. However, even the tough officials of the Federal Reserve during the Powell era did not choose to raise interest rates because everyone knows that the rise in oil prices is limited; as soon as the war between the United States and Iran is resolved, oil prices will decrease.

The inflation in August this time, in fact, did not show any increase. Of course, the focus is still on the core PCE, but the data of CPI and core CPI can also illustrate the problem. It is clearly visible that the CPI is stable, while the core CPI has slightly decreased. Even without looking at the August data, the core PCE has not increased.

Therefore, I personally believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve choosing to proactively raise interest rates when inflation has not increased without making forward management is low. In simple terms, inflation was higher when Powell was in charge, and there were no interest rate hikes then. Now that inflation has decreased, the rationale for raising rates seems a bit forced.

Of course, I also think there is a way to scare the market through the dot plot, while also letting Trump know the consequences of the trouble he has caused.

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