I drank too much yesterday and became drowsy. Luckily, there wasn't any significant data yesterday; the most important was the PPI data being extremely high, which made the market a bit worried. However, today's CPI data year-on-year is quite good, within the market expectations, and did not exceed the previous value. But the month-on-month increase in CPI is a bit high, which still worries investors that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in September.

Regarding this matter, my own judgment is that there are no obvious signs of inflation (year-on-year) rising, especially since it has been decreasing (core PCE) since May. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that it is not prepared to provide forward guidance. Therefore, choosing to raise interest rates when inflation is not rising and is actually decreasing seems a bit strange to me. Moreover, during Powell’s tenure, inflation was clearly higher, yet there was no rate hike.

Of course, my judgment may not be correct; this is just my own thought. I believe that as for Warsh, he should not encourage a rate hike, otherwise Trump would be furious. The crux of the matter still lies in Hormuz. Next Monday, Iran will hold a meeting with Gulf countries to discuss the Hormuz issue. If it can be partially opened, it would also help alleviate oil prices.

The question is whether Iran will open part of Hormuz before the midterm elections. This still depends on the pressure from other countries. Because of this, I haven't been involved in Bitcoin's dual currency recently, but starting next week I can prepare to give it a try. The price stability seems acceptable right now, and I am ready to test it at the current bitcoin:native price of $75,000.

@Gate Crypto, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, and one-stop trading for prediction markets

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