Written by: Rita

Robinhood predicts market users will exceed 2 million. In a report released on September 14, 2026, Deutsche Bank raised its target price from $136 to $138, maintaining a buy rating. The current price is $112.57, with an upside potential of about 22.6%. Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Bedell pointed out after a roadshow in London that the operational metrics for August largely met expectations, with strong crypto trading volume, continuous growth in margin loans, and cash sweep balances.

Deutsche Bank believes that Robinhood is transforming from a trading platform into a global financial services ecosystem. Predictive markets, tokenization, and international expansion are seen as the most important long-term growth opportunities. Robinhood Chain is expected to become a business generating an annualized revenue of $100 million in the fourth quarter, and the company may have around 14 business lines exceeding $100 million by the end of 2026.

Predicted market users exceed 2 million

Robinhood routes some event contracts to partner exchanges, indicating the company's intent to diversify its execution scope. Management is optimistic about the football season and midterm election contracts, and Rothera Exchange continues to develop, with most contracts ultimately routed to Rothera.

Management is focused on expanding the types of contracts on Rothera, including company KPI contracts, awaiting SEC approval of Cboe's application. The SEC's comment period has been extended to October 13. The predictive market currently has over 2 million users, making it one of the fastest-growing business lines for Robinhood.

Chain annualized revenue looks at $100 million

After Robinhood Chain launched in early July, activity surged on the meme coin issuance platform by the end of August, with nearly 200 tokenized stock trades and perpetual contracts also generating trading fees. Management believes this chain will continue to attract developers and decentralized trading activities, strategically helping individuals in 120 countries access risk assets 24x7.

Deutsche Bank notes that Robinhood Chain's revenue is shared with launching partners, retaining 50% of sorter revenue for cumulative amounts up to $50 million, 70% for amounts between $50 million and $150 million, and 85% for amounts exceeding $150 million. Management stated that on-chain trading volume does not count towards crypto trading volume. Deutsche Bank believes this revenue-sharing clause is a positive incremental factor.

August operational metrics largely meet expectations

Stock nominal trading volume in August was $335 billion, compared to $333 billion in July. Options contracts totaled 293 million in August, down from 324 million in July. Robinhood App crypto trading volume in August was $7.4 billion, up from $4.3 billion in July. Bitstamp crypto trading volume in August was $10.1 billion, up from $6.6 billion in July. Event contracts totaled 470 million in August, down from 610 million in July.

Net deposits in August were $4 billion, with an annualized organic growth rate of 14%. As of the end of August, there were 28.6 million funded customers. Margin loan balances in August were $21.5 billion. Cash and deposit balances in August were $19.6 billion. Cash sweep balances in August were $31.2 billion. Securities lending net income was negative $8 million in August, lower than Deutsche Bank's previous expectation of $13.3 million.

International expansion and AI trading

Management continues to push for international expansion as per the market, starting with crypto in the UK, with the acquisition in Canada completed and plans for Singapore and Indonesia underway. Deutsche Bank believes a measured approach allows the company to localize products and manage execution risks. The decentralized access of Robinhood Chain facilitates international expansion and brand building.

AI agent trading accounts exceed 100,000, with assets exceeding $100 million. The Cortex AI assistant is expanding its features and being deployed to more use cases. Management expects to showcase more trading capabilities at the Houston summit on September 29-30.

Raised EPS forecasts

Deutsche Bank raised its EPS forecast for the third quarter of 2026 from 0.57 to 0.58, for the full year 2026 from 2.32 to 2.33, for 2027 from 3.48 to 3.53, and for 2028 from 4.93 to 4.95. Revised EBITDA forecasts have been adjusted accordingly. Deutsche Bank's EPS forecasts are above market consensus, with the third quarter of 2026 predicted to be 12% higher, the full year 2026 7% higher, 2027 21% higher, and 2028 38% higher.

The target price of $138 is based on the 2027 EPS, using a forward price-to-earnings ratio at a 90% premium to the S&P 500, sitting at the midpoint of the relative P/E ratio of the past 12 months and below one standard deviation. Downside risks include a decline in trading volume, decreased crypto acceptance, a drop in payment for order flow, expenses exceeding expectations, regulatory risks, slower-than-expected growth plan progression, increased competition, security concerns, acquisition dilution risk, and credit card credit losses.

Predictive markets and Robinhood Chain are two new revenue pillars for Robinhood as it transitions from a trading platform to a financial services ecosystem.

Disclaimer

This article is an arrangement and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party broker's research report (Deutsche Bank, September 14, 2026), combined with the organization of publicly available market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments quoted in this article are solely the opinions of the broker's analysts and only represent the stance of their respective institutions, not the views of Chaoxiang Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.

Markets are risky, and decisions should be made independently. This article should not serve as the basis for buying or selling any securities.