Bitcoin formed a wave of decline last night. Compared to the strength of the upward movement, the depth of the downward movement is not too significant; mainly because the former had a very strong upward force on September 18 and 21, with both bullish candles exceeding 5000 points, it can be said to have supported the crypto market. Everyone's focus, with Lao Cui's explanation, can find the core reasons, while it is also difficult to understand why a downturn instead shows different trends. This is the charm of emotional markets; growth can be stimulated by news, even if the news has no substantial support. In fact, the favorable foreign trade, which Lao Cui studied yesterday, involves some agreements signed earlier, with over 300 tariff discussions on detailed projects, and some industries even returning to zero tariffs. This has had some impact on AI and technology, but the final decisions still need to observe today's news. I remind everyone not to have overly high expectations; the historical significance is immense, but the key divergences in negotiations have little effect.

Lao Cui's points of focus in his estimates include the following items: First category: tariffs, soybeans, Boeing, rare earths, etc., where coordination is not for private enterprises; Second category: AI, the covert battle is too intense, even if an agreement is signed, it cannot change the current situation, it is impossible to hand over data and markets; Third category: New energy, although there is a genuine desire to open the American market, traditional American and Japanese capitals have long worked behind the scenes to block this. Everyone can use their imagination about what projects could still be negotiated. From the perspective of positive news, Lao Cui believes that signaling is just about being stable; it will not seek more intense confrontation, stabilizing the current situation is victory. The closer we get to the truth of the matter, the market will revert to its essence; as long as the interest rate hike cycle exists, the path provided to the market is already clear, it has no upward capital. When the emotional market disperses, the downturn may hit harder, and with some time until the next rate hike, the long users should watch closely.

Lao Cui summarizes: The investment market follows the 80/20 rule, and most users will place themselves in that 20%, fantasizing that they are genius traders; Lao Cui's mindset is not very popular, always placing himself in the 80% option. This also leads to many friends feeling a bit resentful of this feeling, always cooling everyone down at the peak of emotions, even if profits are made, they will just attribute it to fate's arrangement. Regardless of how you think, Lao Cui will only remind everyone of risks; trends are easier to predict than short-term fluctuations, because emotions and manipulation cannot deviate from the market itself. Even if there is capital manipulation in the short term and washing behavior emerges, it does not threaten investors who rely on trends; it can only threaten speculators. As the holiday season approaches, the usual American tactics will unfold, and abnormal trends will stand out, which also needs to attract some attention; this is also where Lao Cui feels the last opportunity for bulls lies.

Some users who have just started following Lao Cui may not fully understand the rebound in this market. We can start from the perspective of vested interests; at least this round of buying can clean out the shorts. Secondly, the next round's ability to accept downside will be lower, resulting in everyone wanting to catch the dip yesterday. Most users in Lao Cui's hands are thinking of bottoming out on Bitcoin. Often, after severe fluctuations, the price levels retail investors can accept will rise. For example, Lao Cui previously mentioned that the subsequent levels of 7-7.5 would be touched, while everyone was asking me if they could buy a part at 84000? And when asking to catch the bottom at 60,000, everyone told Lao Cui that it might still be at the 45,000-50,000 level. This is the brilliance of the market makers, the retail mindset is completely crushed, and it doesn't even require them to make any moves; you will cooperate. Back to the market itself, many friends in the circle discussed coping methods yesterday?

Some are stuck in long positions seeking to exit, some want to catch the bottom, and others want to short. Lao Cui’s advice is to completely halt trading and wait for today’s signals. Lao Cui himself placed a short position around 85,400, which can be seen in certain areas, causing doubts from everyone, feeling Lao Cui didn't share his true thoughts. In fact, there's not much to think about; the market is like this, chasing orders can only focus on price points; if it breaks below 85,000, a trend of over 500 points can naturally occur. If you want to chase, you can only focus on making short-term profits at price points. The market can change quickly, and since Lao Cui has always been bearish, there has been some loss along the way. There’s nothing that cannot be discussed; Lao Cui can also lose, and lose quite a lot, not less than everyone else, and everyone can balance that out. If you didn’t chase yesterday, how would you recover your losses? Perhaps I am harsher than everyone else; if the wrong move is made, I won't wait for a liquidation, I would just cut losses immediately! I’ll come back next time!

If interested, Lao Cui will show some of the private domain; you must strictly follow the standards to have subsequent stories, don't have a lucky mindset. Short-term losses do not indicate any problems; for this market, as previously mentioned, prices above 80,000 can be sold short. Lao Cui did just that, not saying to buy without buying myself; naturally at crucial points, Lao Cui will buy. The biggest loss was at the 81,000 mark; if it breaks 85, I will cut it. Even when it declines back to 85, I still have the courage to get back in; as long as it can break below 80,000, won’t it come back again? Holding on will only torture your own mindset and make you start to doubt yourself. One thing Lao Cui is extremely confident about is that the judgment of the trend is almost never wrong. You must have confidence in yourself; this is the principle of winning. At the end of the article, Lao Cui’s estimate waits for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and subsequent holidays; the real bears will come; today's news will determine the trend for the remaining days, and the core still depends on whether there will be an interest rate hike cycle; as long as there is, short is the only direction! Lao Cui is bearish and will not provide operational ideas for bulls! If interested, everyone can take a look at the upcoming circles! All our previous predictions will not deviate due to the influence of this sentiment; the levels that should be caught are still the same, there may be lower positions, but don’t wait for new lows!

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