Bitcoin has just rebounded from around $80,000, and a new test is coming.
On October 14, the United States will announce the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin experiencing violent fluctuations, concentrated liquidations of leveraged long positions, and continuous outflows from spot ETFs, this inflation report may become an important catalyst for the short-term market.
The contradiction facing the market is that: BTC has recovered some of its losses, but the strengthening dollar, high yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, and the oil price fluctuations caused by the Middle East situation are still suppressing risk appetite. If the inflation data exceeds expectations again, the market may reassess the Fed's room for rate cuts; if inflation pressures ease, the recently pressured crypto assets may get a breather.
1. CPI becomes the short-term focus, market worries about inflation heating up again
The schedule published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the September CPI will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on October 14, which is 8:30 p.m. Beijing time and the same day at 8:30 p.m. Singapore time.
According to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, the overall CPI for September is expected to rise by 0.6% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year; core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. These numbers reflect market expectations before the release, not the final results.
The key point of this data is that rising energy prices may push overall inflation higher. The recent fluctuations in the Middle East have seen international oil prices break through $100 per barrel, raising market concerns that rising energy costs will reinvigorate inflationary pressures.
If the overall CPI is significantly higher than expected, especially if rising energy prices further transmit to other goods and services, the market may worry that the Fed will need to maintain a tighter monetary policy for a longer time. If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise accordingly, it usually puts pressure on high-volatility assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, if the CPI is lower than expected and inflation pressures do not further spread, investor concerns regarding monetary policy may ease. However, a single data point is insufficient to determine the direction of Fed policy; the market will also reprice based on core inflation, employment, and subsequent economic data.
2. BTC rebounds to $83,000, liquidation pressure still worth noting
Before the CPI release, Bitcoin has already undergone a noticeable deleveraging process.
In early October, BTC briefly fell to about $80,300, and then rebounded to around $83,000. Bitfinex cited CoinGlass data showing that in the previous round of sell-off, the total market liquidation volume reached approximately $1.18 billion within 24 hours, of which about $1.05 billion came from long positions.
This means that the decline was not only due to spot sell-offs but was also amplified by the passive liquidation of leveraged positions. When the price falls below a critical level, insufficient long margin may trigger forced liquidation, further increasing selling pressure.
After concentrated liquidations, some overly leveraged positions have exited the market, but this does not mean that volatility risk has completely disappeared. After the CPI is announced, if the price quickly breaks through or falls below a critical level, new leveraged positions may still amplify the market movement.
Therefore, BTC's return to around $83,000 only indicates that the price has repaired from a low point. Whether the rebound can continue still needs to be observed based on whether spot buying follows up and whether the price can remain stable after macro data is released.
3. Continuous outflows from ETFs, institutional funds remain cautious
The flow of spot funds has also not provided the market with a clear bullish signal.
According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $681 million from October 5 to 9, marking the largest single-week fund outflow since June.
ETF fund flows cannot solely determine Bitcoin’s trend, but they are an important indicator to observe the investment demand in the U.S. market. If ETF outflows continue while prices rebound, it indicates that institutional buying demand has not yet significantly recovered, and the rebound may lack sustainable funding support.
Moving forward, in addition to focusing on the CPI results, the market also needs to observe whether ETFs will see a net inflow after the inflation data is announced. If inflation eases and fund flows return simultaneously, the foundation for market recovery may be more solid; if prices rebound while funds continue to flow out, the market could still face pressure.
4. Oil prices, the dollar, and interest rates determine the impact of CPI
This round of market adjustment has not been driven by a single factor. Oil price fluctuations caused by the Middle East situation, a strengthening dollar, and rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds collectively influence investors' willingness to allocate to risk assets.
Oil prices are one of the key variables. Rising energy prices may directly increase overall CPI and could also affect costs in transportation, production, and other sectors if sustained over a longer period. However, if oil prices fall back and core inflation remains moderate, market concerns about the continued spread of inflation may also diminish.
This is why this CPI cannot be viewed solely in terms of one year-on-year number. Overall CPI reflects a broad change in consumer prices, while core CPI excludes food and energy prices, making it more helpful to observe inflation pressures outside of energy. The gap between these two data points and market expectations may affect the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and the short-term responses of the crypto market.
Future focus: market reaction after data release
After the CPI is released, three signals can be closely observed: first, whether overall and core CPI are above expectations; second, whether the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise; and third, whether BTC's rebound can be supported by spot funds.
If the inflation data is on the hot side, and the dollar and yields continue to rise, BTC may retest support near recent lows; if the data is moderate, interest rate expectations ease, and ETF fund flows improve, the price may try to sustain the rebound.
For the current market, CPI is not just an inflation report, but also a test of the quality of the BTC rebound. With leveraged positions just undergoing concentrated cleanup and institutional funds remaining cautious, what really matters is not the immediate rise or fall at the moment the data is released, but whether the market can form a sustained direction after the announcement.
If you are also paying attention to the Crypto market and want to participate in trading or asset allocation, you can register through the following exclusive channels and enjoy benefits:
Binance: Register through the exclusive link, enter invitation code aicoin668, and enjoy a 10% rebate.
Registration link: https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=3
Welfare group: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=gmLgwvKD1
OKX: Register through the AiCoin exclusive link to enjoy a permanent 20% rebate.
Registration link: https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=2
Welfare group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Bitget: Register through the AiCoin exclusive channel to enjoy a 10% fee rebate
Registration link: https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=6
Welfare group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N63yYYKQE
Feel free to join relevant AiCoin communities to get more information on new tokens and earning opportunities:
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoin_support
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
The content of this article represents the author's personal opinions and does not represent the platform's position. The views, conclusions, and suggestions presented in this article are for investor reference only and do not constitute any investment advice related to this platform. The market has risks, and investment should be cautious.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
