Once Bitmine stops accumulating, who will step in to become the next buying force for ETH?

Written by: Nancy, PANews

The largest buyer of Ethereum, Bitmine, is about to hit the brakes on its accumulation. In just over a year, Bitmine is only one step away from its target of holding 5% of Ethereum's supply, which was originally a five-year long-term plan.

Even though its paper losses have continued to widen, this Ethereum treasury company has not stopped hoarding coins, becoming one of the important buying forces supporting ETH. Once Bitmine stops accumulating, who will take over as the next buying force for ETH?

In just 16 months, BitMine is about to complete the "5% alchemy"

The Ethereum bull Bitmine is about to complete the "5% alchemy."

Since launching its ETH reserve strategy in June 2025, Bitmine has been continuously buying ETH almost every week, quickly growing into the world's largest Ethereum treasury company. Now, the plan that was originally expected to take five years to complete has entered its final phase ahead of schedule.

According to an official announcement from Bitmine, as of October 11, the company holds 6,028,946 ETH, accounting for approximately 4.9% of the total ETH supply (122.1 million), having completed about 99% of the goal of holding 5%.

In other words, Bitmine is only about 77,000 ETH away from its target. If the recent weekly increase of over 12,000 ETH is maintained, the company could reach its goal in six to seven weeks. This means that Bitmine is expected to fulfill its commitment about 16 months after starting.

However, looking at the pace of accumulation, Bitmine has clearly slowed down its purchasing pace in recent months. Since June of this year, its weekly accumulation has gradually decreased from previous levels of over 100,000 or even 200,000 ETH to several tens of thousands or even lower. Although the trend of continuous buying has not changed, it is evident that Bitmine is proactively adjusting its coin hoarding pace.

The aggressive hoarding strategy has also put Bitmine under significant paper pressure. At an average holding price of $3,334 per ETH, Bitmine's current unrealized loss is approximately $5 billion. In response, Bitmine's chairman Tom Lee remains optimistic. He stated that most of the company's ETH holdings were accumulated during the bear market in the crypto market, and therefore, prior to the anticipated next crypto bull market, Bitmine is already in a relatively advantageous position.

"We will not continue to accumulate once our holdings exceed 5%, nor hold more than 5% of Ethereum's total supply of ETH." Tom Lee clearly stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that BitMine has set 5% as a hard cap for its holdings.

It is noteworthy that several months ago, Tom Lee mentioned in an interview with Bankless that more and more companies are beginning to view ETH as a long-term reserve asset akin to real estate, making it reasonable for Bitmine to hold more than 5% of ETH's total supply. He also revealed that the company might reevaluate this holding target in 2027, primarily based on Ethereum's adoption rate and ecological development.

Perhaps, 5% is not necessarily the absolute upper limit for Bitmine's long-term holdings. Whether to continue accumulating in the future will still depend on the development of the Ethereum ecosystem and the company's own capital operation strategy.

The strategic focus may shift to valuation recovery, relying on selling staking rewards to cover financial expenses

Currently, Bitmine has chosen to pause its accumulation efforts just as it is about to reach its holding target, which may consider both the healthy development of the Ethereum ecosystem and its stock price performance.

From the perspective of ecological construction, Tom Lee has repeatedly explained that BitMine set the ETH holding target at 5% to hold a sufficient amount of ETH while avoiding disruption to the ecosystem, thereby having a positive impact. In his view, 5% is a holding proportion that can produce substantial effects and also provide important long-term support for the Ethereum ecosystem, becoming the "ballast" of network development.

On the other hand, BitMine itself is facing stock price pressure. Over the past year, BMNR's stock price has declined over 55.6%. For Bitmine, continuous financing for coin purchases is an important means to expand its ETH reserves, but the pressure from equity dilution caused by financing may also drag down market valuations of the company's stock.

To boost its stock price, Bitmine has slowed down its ETH buying pace while initiating a stock buyback plan. According to official disclosures, from July 14 to August 17, the company repurchased 21 million shares at a cost of $350 million. Tom Lee stated that this is the largest stock buyback in the history of the crypto industry.

Now, as the hoarding scale approaches the set holding target, Bitmine's strategic focus may shift to shareholder returns and valuation recovery. Tom Lee pointed out in a recent speech at Token2049 in Singapore that after reaching the target holding, BMNR is expected to outperform ETH because the company will no longer need continuous financing to buy coins, and market concerns over its equity dilution are also expected to diminish.

Moreover, after achieving the hoarding goal, it does not mean that Bitmine will sell its core ETH holdings for financial needs. Tom Lee recently stated that most DAT companies holding large assets may eventually need to sell some assets to pay operating expenses, repay debts, or distribute profits to shareholders. However, BitMine's situation is different; ETH can continuously generate income through staking, and existing staking income is sufficient to cover preferred stock dividend expenses, thereby reducing the necessity for the company to sell core ETH holdings to meet financial obligations.

It is reported that Bitmine is currently staking 5,067,309 ETH, with an annualized staking income of $336 million; if fully staked, based on a 7-day staking yield of 2.61%, the annualized income is expected to reach $400 million.

However, Tom Lee has also clearly stated that Bitmine will sell the staking rewards it receives. In his view, selling core ETH holdings may mean changing existing strategies, while selling rewards generated from staking is a way to manage the scale of holdings.

But even if calculated based on an annualized income of $400 million from total staked holdings, the daily average selling amount is about $1.1 million, which has limited direct impact on ETH prices.

After the largest buyer stops accumulating, who will fill the void in the market?

Undeniably, for over a year, Bitmine has not only been an important buying force in the ETH market but also a crucial participant supporting market confidence.

According to SoSoValue data, as of October 13, the total net assets of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs are about $15.83 billion, with a net asset ratio (the market value of ETF-held assets as a percentage of ETH's total market value) reaching 5.16%. By comparison, the ETH holdings of Bitmine, a single DAT company, are already comparable to the overall holding scale of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.

Furthermore, Bitmine's buying scale has been able to absorb a certain amount of ETH's new supply. For example, in the past 30 days, ultrasound.money data shows that the new issuance of ETH was about 86,000, while Bitmine purchased about 72,000 ETH during the same period, equivalent to 75.2% of the new issuance.

However, if Bitmine stops accumulating, who can step in to become the new buying force for ETH has become a topic of market concern.

Currently, spot ETFs have not shown sufficient strength to absorb new funds. Data indicates that U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs have experienced net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with $542 million withdrawn last week alone, marking the largest single-week net outflow since January of this year. If the trend of fund outflows continues, ETFs will not only struggle to fill the potential buying gap left by Bitmine but may also increase the selling pressure in the market.

Other digital asset treasury companies also have limited buying capacity. Currently, the second-largest ETH treasury company, SharpLink, holds ETH that accounts for about 0.73% of the total supply, far from Bitmine's approximately 4.9% holding ratio. In terms of asset reserve scale and the ability to continue accumulating, other DAT companies currently find it difficult to compare with BitMine.

However, changes in buying power do not necessarily mean that ETH prices will continue to be under pressure; market demand still depends on ETF fund flows, other institutions' asset allocation willingness, and the overall risk appetite in the crypto market.

In the medium to long-term outlook, Tom Lee remains optimistic. He believes the next round of the crypto bull market is expected to be the largest in history, driven by multiple factors, including asset tokenization, generational wealth transfer, digital asset treasury companies continuously absorbing market supply, and the crypto industry benefiting from the development of artificial intelligence as a downstream of the AI industry chain.

In Tom Lee's view, the ongoing wealth transfer may also bring new incremental funds to the crypto market. Since the group inheriting wealth is relatively young, their risk preference for crypto assets and stocks may be higher, and this trend may have a greater impact during this cycle than during the bull market from 2019 to 2021.

Regarding the price outlook for ETH, Tom Lee has made an aggressive prediction. He expects ETH to potentially break $5,000 by the end of this year; if Bitcoin's price breaks $100,000, ETH is expected to further rise to around $7,500. His long-term bullish logic is based on the belief that after years of consolidation, Ethereum may face a more significant price breakthrough.

In summary, when the largest buyer of Ethereum stops accumulating, the market's ability to absorb may face a test. However, the buying pace of a single treasury company does not determine the long-term trend of ETH. With asset tokenization accelerating, institutional allocation demand increasing, and the continued development of the Ethereum ecosystem, the market is still expected to welcome new incremental funds to provide new demand support for ETH.