As of October 28 Eastern Time, the total net inflow for the US Bitcoin spot ETF was approximately $137-137.3 million in a single day, and has recorded net inflows for three consecutive days up to that date. BlackRock's IBIT contributed approximately $136 million, almost capturing all the new capital for that day, in stark contrast to the roughly $21.4 million net outflow from the US Ethereum spot ETF during the same period. Against the backdrop of a price anchored around $80,000, CryptoQuant data shows that from October 22 to 29, the total distribution volume of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) on a 30-day basis decreased from about 310,000 coins to around 240,000 coins, a reduction of approximately 22%. During the same period, LTH MVRV dropped from 1.67 to 1.65, with the current price being about 65% higher than the average cost of around $48,000, indicating that while profits remain substantial, the tendency to hold back sales is increasing as a characteristic of on-chain behavior. In contrast to Bitcoin's main chain institutional capital inflow, Zcash, which forked from Bitcoin and introduced zero-knowledge full shielding trading mechanisms, celebrated its mainnet launch's tenth anniversary on October 28. On that day, ZEC's price rose by about 8% at one point, nearly reaching $1,320, providing a side sample for the privacy narrative currently in the market. Summarizing the incremental demand corresponding to continuous net inflows into ETFs and the reduction in LTH distribution volume reflecting a contraction in active supply, the supply-demand structure of Bitcoin around $80,000 is revealing a combination signal of "supply contraction + demand recovery."
Net inflow of $137 million in three days: Bitcoin ETF becomes the capital focus
While the active supply from LTH is contracting, the capital flow on October 28 Eastern Time further reinforced Bitcoin's "institutional focus" attribute. According to Farside and SoSoValue data, the total net inflow for the US Bitcoin spot ETF on that day was approximately $137-137.3 million, and it has recorded net inflows for three consecutive days, reflecting a stable influx of incremental capital. More critically, this influx is highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT: approximately $136 million in net inflow almost encompassed all the new capital, while Bitwise's BITB recorded only about $1.3 million net inflow during the same period, highlighting that other products, aside from IBIT, clearly remain in a subordinate tier in terms of capital volume and attractiveness.
On the other side of the capital spectrum, the Ethereum ETF is facing phase pressure. Farside data shows that on the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a total net outflow of around $21.4 million, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin's continued capital inflow. This structure of "Bitcoin net inflow and Ethereum net outflow," combined with the historical total net inflow of IBIT accumulating to about $66.531 billion, suggests that institutions, through ETF channels, are long-term targeting Bitcoin in their allocations, with the focus of fund redistribution in the short term also concentrating on Bitcoin as a single asset. With existing holders reluctant to sell and the ETF channel continuously attracting capital, the weight of Bitcoin in mainstream institutional asset allocations is being further elevated.
Profits exceed 65%: LTH chooses to hold back sales at $80,000
As institutions continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings through spot ETFs, long-term holders (LTH) have not chosen to concentrate their distributions as the price approaches around $80,000. According to single-source data from CryptoQuant, from October 22 to October 29, Bitcoin's market price was around $80,000, while LTH's average cost basis was about $48,000, making the current price approximately 65% higher than the cost, indicating that the overwhelming majority of long-term stakes are in a significantly profitable state. During the same period, LTH MVRV slightly decreased from 1.67 to 1.65, with the profit buffer narrowing by about 2 percentage points, showing a slight thinning of the safety margin between price and cost, but overall still remaining in a clearly profitable range. This behavior of maintaining "reluctance to sell" rather than large-scale cashing out under a structure of high profits and slight cooling is an important characteristic of the current cycle.
More intuitive supply-side indicators are also confirming this. According to single-source data from CryptoQuant, from October 22 to October 29, the total distribution volume from LTH on a 30-day basis dropped from approximately 310,000 coins to about 240,000 coins, a decrease of about 22%, representing a significant contraction of marginal supply from long-term stakes at high levels. In other words, even though book profits are overall high, the number of LTH willing to sell in the current range is decreasing, and the active hanging of long-term stakes is reduced, bringing about a phase relief of selling pressure in the market: with institutional funds continuously inflowing through ETF channels and LTH supply shrinking, it is easier for Bitcoin to form a trading environment near the $80,000 price range led by demand rather than controlled by heavy long-term stake sell-offs.
Supply contraction combined with ETF return flow: Bitcoin's short-term equilibrium point
On the demand side, on October 28 Eastern Time, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $137-137.3 million in a single day, and has achieved net inflows for three consecutive days, with IBIT contributing about $136 million on that day and a historical total net inflow of about $66.531 billion, indicating that incremental capital is concentrated in a few leading products flowing back into Bitcoin; on the supply side, from October 22 to 29, Bitcoin's LTH 30-day distribution volume dropped from about 310,000 coins to about 240,000 coins, a reduction of about 22%. Compared to the current price of around $80,000 and an average cost of about $48,000, LTH, while still having about 65% floating profits, has chosen to diminish their willingness to sell, creating a "warming of funds + marginal contraction of long-term stakes" as the main supply-demand framework in the current phase. The result is that ETF buying pressure at high levels finds it harder to rapidly mobilize a large number of willing long-term stakes, tightening the liquidity available and thereby forming a certain passive support near the current price.
The other side of this pattern reveals signals of capital rebalancing between assets: on the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of approximately $21.4 million. Under a single-source data measure, this is in the opposite direction of the capital flow back to Bitcoin ETF, showing a short-term preference shift for institutional capital from Ethereum to Bitcoin; however, this seems more like a tactical allocation change within the window rather than an already established long-term conclusion. It is important to emphasize that both the ETF redemption statistics from Farside and SoSoValue and CryptoQuant's on-chain observations of LTH distribution and costs currently only cover a limited time period from October 22 to 29, and some of the data comes from a single statistical source, resulting in uncertainty regarding trend continuity and data completeness. Therefore, the supply-demand signals are more suitable for describing the short-term trading environment rather than direct extrapolation for medium to long-term judgments.
Zcash's tenth anniversary: Another timeline for privacy forks
If the Bitcoin spot ETF has firmly locked in the funding and narrative focus of recent days on the main line of "compliance and institutionalization," then another timeline, occurring on October 28, is Zcash, which forked from the Bitcoin codebase ten years ago. On October 28, 2016, Zcash's mainnet was launched, maintaining key parameters such as a total supply cap of 21 million coins and halving block rewards similar to Bitcoin, but introduced optional privacy and full shielding transactions at the trading layer through zero-knowledge proofs, becoming one of the early attempts to systematically strengthen on-chain privacy through cryptographic means. In terms of supply structure, it replicates Bitcoin almost identically, while in terms of transaction semantics, it deliberately distances itself from regulatory attention and traceability.
On the same day ten years later, ZEC's performance on its launch anniversary provided a side data point: on October 28, 2026, ZEC surged about 8% during trading, peaking near $1,320. In the high-level environment shaped by ETF net inflows and LTH reluctance to sell, this movement of the established privacy chain project seems more like an event point for reinforcing the privacy narrative, rather than a challenge to the mainstream asset pricing framework. The structural similarity between Zcash and Bitcoin in terms of halving and total supply control naturally categorizes it as a "scarce asset," but the full shielding transaction function supported by zero-knowledge proofs pushes it toward a regulatory trajectory almost opposite to that of ETF products: on one side are holdings, liquidity, and redemptions quantified and publicly accounted for, while on the other side, substantial on-chain visibility can be smoothed out at the protocol level. In the current context where Bitcoin has clearly become the institutional capital focus, the price reaction and discussion surrounding Zcash's tenth anniversary reflect more the existence and repricing of an established public chain in the privacy race at the margins, rather than a signal of a shift in the main line of capital.
Observational coordinates intertwined with capital differentiation and established public chains
The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of approximately $137-137.3 million on October 28 and has achieved net inflows for three consecutive days (according to Farside and SoSoValue data), coupled with a decline from 1.67 to 1.65 in LTH MVRV and a reduction of approximately 22% in total distribution volume from October 22 to 29 (according to single-source CryptoQuant), forming the current picture of funds and on-chain phenomena where "supply contraction and demand recovery may overlap." Meanwhile, Zcash's approximately 8% increase and performance near the $1,320 high on its tenth anniversary (according to single-source data) provides a side sample of the pricing elasticity of privacy fork public chains on the edge of this picture. In contrast, the approximately $21.4 million net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF on October 28 (according to single-source data from Farside) indicates that within the current window, institutional capital preferences are temporarily leaning toward Bitcoin, while the valuation and regulatory expectations for Ethereum and privacy public chains remain in a state of uncertain rebalancing. It is important to emphasize that the above on-chain and ETF data are all based on historical snapshots up to October 29, 2026, and some sources are based on a single statistical measure. Any judgment about whether "supply contraction + demand recovery" can continue is merely inference; it is necessary to continuously track ETF subscription and redemption flows and changes in LTH behavior, and with more diversified cross-source data cross-verification, prudently update observations of the current cycle's structure.
Join our community to discuss together and become stronger!
Exclusive Hyperliquid benefits for AiCoin: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
Exclusive Aster benefits for AiCoin: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin on-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
