Bitcoin's repair height reached 78776 yesterday, and the strength is clearly insufficient. Not to mention the 80,000 barrier, even the pressure at 79,000 cannot be broken; the main reason is still following the direction of US tech stocks, with a high overlap between the two. At the same time, many friends have similar thinking patterns as the Americans, not being able to grasp the main focus of investment, and are confused as to why attention is being concentrated on the Binance hacking incident. Trump's mainstream focus is on North Korea, and if you stand from an investment perspective, who the hacker is does not matter; the downward trend only needs one reason. In Lao Cui's eyes, this kind of news is merely a smokescreen, intended to cover up the financial issues in the crypto circle. Whether it exists or not, the market will decline. If you have paid attention to Lao Cui for long enough, you should have some judgment skills; in this case, the focus should be on when the trend may reverse under adverse conditions. What type of news will the reversal come from?

To be straightforward, it will be difficult to see any significant positive news within this year, so the so-called "bad news has been exhausted, therefore good news" does not exist. This is a statement that is extremely illogical in the investment circle; the so-called "bad news has been exhausted" must wait until all news has landed before a rebound can occur. Whether it's the interest rate hike cycle or issues with US stocks and bonds, the most extreme situation has yet to erupt; these negative news incidents continue to increase, and wanting to be bullish this year is completely clueless about investing. Including Trump's supposed promise of controllable oil prices, this is just a slogan, a pretext for the midterm elections. Through Trump's remarks, it can also be observed that he himself is already clear that failure will become highly probable. (Emphasized in the past two days, the president's veto power) The interest rate hike cycle combined with failure in the midterm elections means that what you need to consider is not the movements in the crypto circle this year, but the rebound in the crypto circle within the next 1-2 years. Lao Cui feels it is very difficult to rise above 100,000.

This is not a conclusion but rather an analysis based on current news. In the coming year, the short-term impact of the midterm elections will potentially hinder the legislative process in the crypto circle. This means that if the implementation of the legislation is delayed next year, the consequence will be a delay in the bull market. One concern is that long-term users in the crypto circle may have a misconception; given Bitcoin's extreme volatility, they may feel that stabilizing at the 100,000 threshold is relatively easy. It is precisely because they have seen Bitcoin's breakout capabilities that a habit is formed, feeling that breaking down by 10,000 points in a day could be quite easy. This mindset must be discarded; the current volume is different from before, and in the perspective of long-term investment, moving from 126,000 to below 60,000 can be seen as a turnover, forced to make retail investors exit. The premise is the pressure from the news; the current digestion capability of the crypto circle is not strong, and it remains in the stage of fulfilling Trump's commitments before the elections. The two proposals are, one is legality and compliance, and the other is government investment and support.

These two pieces of news are still in implementation; even if new slogans appear before this, capital will still observe their feasibility. The derivation of the bull market naturally needs to combine their support strength; American party struggles can lead to anything happening. Between Democrats and Republicans, they will only do what is beneficial to themselves. Do not underestimate this correlation; failure in the midterm elections can cause a polarization shift. A Democratic victory will use existing powers to veto Trump's initiatives. These factors favorable to the president will also be left to the next Democratic party to continue, while the role of the Republican party will be completely transformed. Once the next Democratic president wins, they will become the current Democrats and vigorously veto the Democratic proposals. The crypto circle is not large and can easily become a victim; this is seen by Lao Cui as the greatest uncertainty in the crypto circle. This derivation will become clearer as time progresses. If an agreement can be reached next year and both parties' interests can be negotiated, through the legislative process, the crypto circle may still have a chance to breathe. If it cannot be realized, it may turn out as Lao Cui thinks, remaining controlled below the 100,000 threshold long-term, or even falling to lower positions.

Lao Cui summarizes: the dazzling flowers gradually confuse the eye; everyone needs to think from the investment perspective. Who is this hacker? It does not matter to us. What we need to remember in investing is how long will the pressure of the big trend continue? How much can we earn? This is the core issue. Based solely on the current news, we are waiting for a drop to the 74,000 position, watching MicroStrategy's performance; this is a strong support. MicroStrategy and BlackRock will not take measures to rescue the market, which may lead to a drop in Bitcoin. For us, the opportunity for the second wave of short positions will come again. At the same time, once the second wave forms, the next support will likely be around the 60 mark, and support positions will become weaker. Lao Cui's prediction for this scene will be realized within the year, and the primary observation is the upcoming midterm election situation. If nothing unexpected occurs, this wave could pierce through 74,000. Everyone must focus on short positions; there are no opportunities to go long. Trust Lao Cui’s judgment on the trend; it will not be wrong!

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