Russia's retail opening + BlackRock's bet: Is Bitcoin being absorbed by the mainstream?

CN
2 hours ago

In the same time window, three seemingly unrelated news pieces clarified the outline of Bitcoin being "absorbed" by the mainstream system: Firstly, in the second half of 2026, according to a single source from TASS and others, the Central Bank of Russia confirmed a list of crypto assets that can be opened to non-qualified investors, including BTC, ETH, and USDT. Local media reported that the Russian Bank has approved these assets for retail trading, and the Moscow Exchange is reportedly planning to launch these varieties online starting December 1, 2026, providing a compliant entry for local retail investors with local currency pricing and on-site settlement; Secondly, information from a single source at Bitcoin Treasuries showed that BlackRock's yield-focused ETF—PFF—has for the first time disclosed holding 412,353 shares of Strive’s SATS stock in its latest filing, estimated at approximately 38.8 million USD based on the stock price at that time, equivalent to embedding an equity exposure linked to Bitcoin reserve assets in a traditional "yield tool"; Thirdly, TeraWulf published its Q3 financial report on November 6, 2026, with revenue of 76.2 million USD, of which high-performance computing (HPC) leasing revenue was 63 million USD, accounting for about 83%. The net profit was about 709.9 million USD (mainly from the changes in the fair value of warrants and other non-cash factors), and the adjusted EBITDA was still -12.8 million USD, indicating that this company, originally focused on Bitcoin mining, is reshaping itself into a "digital infrastructure serving computing power demand." There are no confirmed direct causal links between these three events, and they largely come from single sources, so caution regarding data errors is warranted. However, when combined, they point in the same direction: Regulatory boundaries are proactively creating "official entries" for BTC, ETH, and USDT; asset managers are stuffing Bitcoin-related equities into traditional income portfolios; and computing power operators are shifting from "mining their own coins" to "selling computing power services." Crypto assets are being institutionally absorbed simultaneously through three channels: major national regulation, Wall Street asset allocation, and public company business models; accompanying this is a repricing of the spot demand curves for BTC/ETH/USDT, the valuation systems for Bitcoin-related equities, and the entire crypto sector's risk preferences and capital flow structures.

Russia Opens BTC/ETH/USDT Entry

After years of "high-pressure prudence" on individuals buying coins, the Central Bank of Russia, according to single source reports from TASS, has for the first time listed a list of crypto assets that non-qualified investors can legally access, naming only BTC, ETH, and USDT. Local media claim that the Russian Bank has approved these assets for retail trading, but details such as limits, leverage, and suitability requirements have not been fully disclosed. At the same time, according to a single source, the Moscow Exchange plans to launch these varieties online starting December 1, 2026, providing a standardized entry for domestic retail investors to trade in local currency and on-site settlement—the demand that previously needed to circumvent foreign platforms, OTCs, and "gray paths" is being guided into a regulatory visible order book, which itself signals the Russian side's redefinition of the boundary between capital projects and financial innovation.

In the context of current external constraints on Russia's financial system and domestic capital control environment, this "white list" that contains only BTC, ETH, and USDT is essentially the state opening a compliant window for three types of functional assets: Bitcoin as a "hard asset hedge," Ethereum accommodating technology growth and on-chain financial expectations, and USDT corresponding more to dollar-like liquidity and cross-border settlement needs. The change in macro variables is that, for the first time, onshore residents can buy these three assets directly in rubles at domestic large exchanges. Funds that originally flowed out through underground exchanges or foreign platforms will partially be "internalized" into onshore BTC/ETH/USDT positions. This may compress the arbitrage space in the black market and offshore OTC, while also generating an independent local premium/discount curve in the Moscow market, separate from global mainstream platforms. In the medium term, the compliance demand for BTC/ETH spot and USDT within Russia will increase a new fiat currency entry and cross-border channel node on the global order book. The actual impact will depend on the transaction volume of rubles against BTC/ETH/USDT after the Moscow Exchange opens and whether the onshore price differences are substantial enough to reshape the flow of some regional funds from local assets to crypto assets, and then to the offshore market.

BlackRock PFF Buys SATS, Bets on Bitcoin

At the same time Russia is trying to integrate BTC/ETH into its currency settlement system, traditional income-focused funds are quietly extending their reach to Bitcoin-related assets. According to a single source from Bitcoin Treasuries, as of around November 6, 2026, BlackRock’s preferred share ETF—PFF—has for the first time disclosed holding 412,353 shares of Strive’s SATS stock, estimated at approximately 38.8 million USD based on the market price at that time. SATS is seen by the market as a stock of a "Bitcoin reserve company," meaning that PFF is not directly purchasing BTC but rather gaining indirect BTC exposure through shares in a publicly listed company highly correlated with Bitcoin assets, adding a layer of "BTC Beta" to this yield-focused product. Currently, public data does not indicate the proportion of SATS in PFF’s total assets, nor does it reveal the purchase cost or whether it belongs to an active allocation, meaning we can only consider it a limited sample: yield-focused ETFs are beginning to accommodate equity positions linked to Bitcoin, rather than remaining solely focused on traditional finance and credit assets.

From the perspective of crypto pricing, this "indirect" exposure differs from directly holding spot ETFs and mining company stocks, representing three different conduits. Products that directly hold spot positions react mechanically and linearly to BTC price changes; mining company stocks carry additional operational risks such as capacity cycles, energy costs, and regulation on top of Bitcoin prices, often amplifying volatility and easily causing financing pressures at the bottom of cycles. Conversely, stocks like SATS, positioned as Bitcoin reserve companies, bring more "portfolio-level" correlation once bought into mainstream ETFs like PFF—funds enter PFF primarily for returns, factor exposure, or asset allocation rationales and indirectly gain BTC price elasticity through a small weight. This results in limited direct buying pressure on BTC spot prices but deeply embeds the performance of Bitcoin into the return structure of credit and equity risk assets. The key variable to watch in the medium term is whether yield-focused products similar to PFF will continue to increase their allocation to such Bitcoin reserve company stocks and whether these holdings in terms of asset allocation will be significant enough to alter the correlation and risk preference transmission rhythm between BTC and traditional credit assets.

TeraWulf Detaches from Bitcoin Price through HPC

Rather than being a mining company financial report, TeraWulf’s submission on November 6, 2026, resembles a "change of identity statement." According to the company's announcement, its Q3 2026 revenue was 76.2 million USD, of which high-performance computing (HPC) leasing contributed 63 million USD, accounting for about 83%. The company no longer defines itself solely as a Bitcoin miner, but rather as a digital infrastructure and computing power leasing company. This financial report also provides an accounting perspective on the transformation: the net profit was elevated to approximately 709.9 million USD due to the changes in the fair value of warrants and other non-cash items, yet the adjusted EBITDA remained at -12.8 million USD, indicating that relying on HPC to "detoxify" from mining is not a simple short-term process, but it is enough to change cash flow sensitivity to BTC prices. This set of data comes mainly from company announcements and single sources, so investors need to remain vigilant about potential variations in disclosure language.

As HPC leasing becomes the main source of revenue, TeraWulf's stock price logic shifts from "BTC leverage" to "data center cash flow": electricity and facilities are still running, but part of the computational power is no longer focused on block rewards and is instead connected to high-performance leasing contracts, thus reducing the synchronization between mining company stocks and Bitcoin prices. For the Bitcoin network, if the trend of mining capital migrating towards HPC and AI computing power continues, it implies two things: First, the "rigid supply" of computing power across the entire network increases—some racks can maintain operation through HPC leasing even when coin prices decline, reducing the elasticity of computing power to prices; Second, the return structure on investments in mining equipment and electricity will be rewritten, making the breakeven point for pure mining projects more susceptible to pressure from comprehensive computing power operators with "side businesses" in HPC. In terms of valuation, the market will have to shift from a framework of "cost of mining each coin + halving cycles" to a composite framework of "contract coverage + facility utilization + BTC exposure ratio." One key variable to observe next is how many listed mining companies will allow HPC revenue ratios to climb to levels similar to TeraWulf, thereby truly rewriting the correlation between mining company indices and Bitcoin spot prices.

Three Mainstream Paths Converge BTC

Looking at the timeline broadly, the loosening of Russian regulation, BlackRock's PFF buying SATS, and TeraWulf's transition to HPC correspond to three pathways that "absorb" BTC into traditional systems: regulatory entry, financial asset vehicles, and computing infrastructure foundations. The Central Bank of Russia's confirmation in the second half of 2026 to open the list of assets, including BTC, ETH, and USDT for non-qualified investors, along with the reported Moscow Exchange set to launch these varieties online starting December 1, is essentially guiding part of local residents' savings and quasi-sovereign funds into the asset pools revolving around BTC/ETH and USDT through local currency pricing and on-site settlement. This path reduces the "compliance threshold premium," providing a new source of buying pressure backed by regulation for spot and on-site derivatives, although the related arrangements largely stem from single-source reports, with details and scales still uncertain.

In parallel, BlackRock's yield-focused preferred share ETF PFF has for the first time disclosed a holding of approximately 38.8 million USD in SATS, indicating that a product targeting conservative dividend needs is beginning to indirectly hold BTC exposure through "Bitcoin reserve company stocks." Entering the pricing chain here are institutional funds that are primarily concerned with dividends and coupons; they will not directly pursue price fluctuations but will view BTC as a risk factor that enhances the Sharpe ratio of their portfolios, thereby partially migrating the valuation anchor of BTC to a "cash flow + reserve asset" dual framework. Additionally, TeraWulf's transition trajectory in Q3 2026, with about 83% of revenue from HPC leasing and an adjusted EBITDA still at -12.8 million USD, signifies that computing power capital is shifting from "betting on coin prices" to "betting on data centers and high-performance computing contracts," with mining company stock prices beginning to price in BTC spots, HPC utilization rates, and contract lock-in rates simultaneously. The three pathways do not entail direct causation but together in the same time window are rewriting the funding source structure: the regulatory entry is engaging domestic residents and quasi-sovereign funds, financial asset vehicles are absorbing institutional funds seeking yields and diversification, and the infrastructure foundation is accommodating long-term capital expenditures and real estate-like cash flows, collectively compressing the pure regulatory and mining risk premiums and pushing BTC/ETH and the on-chain USDT liquidity from being "isolated high-volatility targets" towards a pricing network linked through spots, derivatives, and equity assets. Whether these three paths can continue to amplify will determine whether BTC/ETH is viewed as a high-Beta speculative asset in the next cycle or is revalued as a long-term asset embedded in the combinations of sovereignty, institutions, and infrastructure.

What New Signals Should Traders Pay Attention To

For the spot and equity chain of BTC/ETH/USDT, this round of "institutional absorption" rewrites the medium-term framework: on one end, the compliance entry for local Russians is expected to land in actual trades on the Moscow Exchange after December 1, 2026, turning what was originally "off-market gray flows" into local currency-priced, on-site settled spot buy orders; on the other end, traditional yield-focused ETFs like PFF are beginning to include Bitcoin reserve stocks like SATS into their portfolios, allowing crypto exposure to seep into broader balance sheets instead of remaining within specialized funds. Meanwhile, mining companies like TeraWulf, whose revenue structures are dominated by HPC leasing but still negatively adjusted EBITDA, suggest that mining stocks may gradually shift from "pure coin price Beta" to "computing power + infrastructure Alpha." Traders need to watch the actual transaction volume after the launch of the Russian compliance entry for BTC/ETH/USDT spots, whether local and offshore price differences stabilize into consistent premiums or discounts; for related equity assets, it's important to see whether more traditional ETFs will follow PFF in increasing their weight in SATS and similar targets, or remain at symbolic positions; for mining stocks, monitoring future quarterly reports for HPC revenue ratios and profit elasticity, the sensitivity to coin price cycles—whether it is reduced or amplified at high levels. It must be repeatedly emphasized that details of Russian regulation, the SATS data held by PFF, and TeraWulf's profit composition currently come from single sources and lack complete disclosure and multi-party verification. Until these premises are validated, treating them as "inevitable logic" for high-leverage directional bets remains the greatest risk variable under this narrative.

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