For a period of time in 2023-24, job growth in ⚫️this cycle was steadily declining and printed some of the lowest figures of any US expansion ever, averaging well below 1% for 2023. I was vocally concerned about the economy weakening. But then labor stabilized at that low rate, skidding sideways like Luke's landspeeder in the Tatooine desert, and in recent months it has since bounced and sustained a level nearer 1.9-2%. My immediate concerns about the economy faded, though the overall picture is of an expansion that is very long in the tooth. Whether job growth holds the new higher level into next year is unknown with immigration flows having slowed considerably. Demographics have thinned to the point where a lower amount of jobs are needed to sustain employment. Many aspects of this cycle have at times resembled the 🟣1966 soft landing. Similarities include the sudden lurch in credit and the cyclical goods economy, real retail sales getting beat to hell, the inverted 3m10y yield curve, and the almost-but-not-quite recessionary job figures. Our recent uptick in job growth after a Fed tightening regime adds to the parallel. Other traits of this cycle also resembled the 🟠1973-75 recession, especially in the earlier period, such as strong growth in part time work, a falling Full-Time/Part-Time ratio, and elements of labor hoarding. But present day has diverged from that parallel as the cycle has matured. It is also worth noting that we are now 40 months removed from the first interest rate hike of this cycle (x-axis on the chart). Only the 🔴2007-09 recession took longer to manifest relative to that event.