What are the macro concerns for the future period? The Iran conflict has come to a temporary end. Although there is debate over whether Iran's nuclear program has been delayed for several months or years, I personally believe that it should no longer be the focus of market attention in the coming months. The macro narrative afterwards should be (in chronological order): 1. From a personal perspective, the short-term benefits of tax cuts should outweigh concerns about deficits in the market, as the market's concerns about tax cuts and red children have been raised by the passage of the Beautiful Bill. This is because tax cuts can be implemented immediately, while the impact of increased red children is longer and more far-reaching The Beautiful Bill also includes a debt ceiling, which means that the Ministry of Finance can start issuing bonds on a large scale again. Based on Beisen's previous estimate that the Ministry of Finance's "Xday" may appear in August, it is necessary to pay attention to the Ministry of Finance's bond issuance plan for the third quarter. If the scale is large, it may lead to liquidity constraints. 2. Tariff negotiations and deadline of 7.9 Personally, I should have been the first to mention the high probability of additional equivalent tariffs being abandoned in the end. https://((x.com))/qinbank/status/1919901685780250819? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 In the end, it will be a basic tax rate of 10% and some industry tariffs, which may be around a dozen points overall. As the deadline of July 9th approaches, have you talked about https://((x.com))/qinbufark/status/1933099496424280321 recently? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A The deadline for equivalent tariffs on July 9th may be postponed. If a complete trade agreement cannot be reached before July 9th, temporary agreements should be reached with various countries first, and then negotiations can be carried out slowly. This means that the deadline on July 9th will be automatically postponed In the next one or two weeks, the White House is highly likely to announce that it has reached trade agreements with several countries (similar to the UK version), and the remaining agreements that have not been reached will be the temporary agreements discussed above, which will be discussed gradually. But overall, the impact of tariffs or trade negotiations on the market will become smaller and smaller (if negotiations are not successful, the impact will not be significant, and if negotiations are successful, it will boost sentiment). Of course, the biggest surprise was that Trump once again ignored the storm and really made the additional tariffs come into effect directly. 3. Inflation and labor market trends Last night during Powell's congressional hearing, he stated that he is actually waiting for the release of inflation and labor market data in June and July. If there is no expected strong performance for two consecutive months, it is estimated that there is a high probability of a rate cut in September. The market is also concerned about whether the 10% tariff will have an impact on inflation and how significant the impact will be. This also determines the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Yesterday we talked again about https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/193753978437322? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A 4. Fundamental situation This includes two parts: 1) the fundamentals of the economy based on the GDP data for the second quarter, and 2) how the financial reporting season starting in late July will affect the fundamentals of enterprises. I have talked about it before, macro also requires narrative, and narrative also has weight. If Trump's shift to the progress of trade negotiations after mid April is the most important macro narrative. So, in my opinion, the most important macro narrative next is the third point discussed above: Does the 10% tariff have an impact on inflation and to what extent? This determines the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Essentially, will the expectation of interest rate cuts be strengthened or dispelled. This is the main contradiction in the market for the next one or two months, and the other three points mentioned above should be secondary contradictions. The biggest accident in the secondary contradiction is that Trump ignored the above and directly let the additional nearby tariffs come into effect (of course, this is a small probability event now, and Trump is hard to experience another big market turbulence). The level of deficit concerns brought about by the Beautiful Bill will depend on the size of the Ministry of Finance's bond issuance in the third quarter. If the Beautiful Bill is passed, the Ministry of Finance is likely to expand the scale of bond issuance