Roughly speaking, the current base tariff adopted by the United States is already 10%. Although it doesn't seem to have much impact, the 10% tax rate is 4-5 times the average tariff in 2024. The basis for this round of equivalent tariffs should be another 10%, which means that countries that have reached an agreement with the United States in advance will also have a total tariff of 20%. According to Besant, there will be 100 countries, which is already the majority. However, there will still be a significant rise in national tariffs in some major economies. Although there is no unanswered discussion, it will have an impact on the market. Personally, I still think it will be TACO (Trump Retreat Transaction). And as expected, the final landing time of equivalent tariffs is not July 9, but postponed to August 1, which is equivalent to another month of communication time. The final conclusion is currently uncertain, but the market has already begun to react in advance. The focus of the third quarter is on the game between tariffs and monetary policy. If high tariffs are imposed on countries such as China, the European Union, and Japan, the cost of living may increase. Moreover, Powell's concern about the probability of a one-time increase in costs is also high, which may involve retaliatory tariffs.