A couple thoughts I had re: household credit (1) Household non-mortgage debt costs continue to rise and there has been no measurable increase in the flow to savings since covid stimmies expired. Note how more recent bubbles are higher on the Y-axis but largely unmoved on the X-axis. This is a tenuous mix particularly for folks who don't own many assets. (2) A ratio between non-mortgage debt costs and savings flow shows a balance akin to the 2000s period when households grew credit using real estate. As a result of an historic clogging of the refinance channel (see RT), many homeowners will be unlikely/unwilling to tap large portions of their home equity via refinancing or lever against it until an event brings rates considerably lower. And with the unaffordability of housing for new buyers, the non-mortgage household credit space is logically where leverage would need to grow to bolster an ongoing consumption boom without rising wage growth (3) or direct stimulus. Non-mortgage debt includes personal loans, autos, other large durable goods financing, credit cards, etc. These would all need to expand at generationally high borrowing costs. Households are already spending a huge share of their disposable income on this area because of high rates. A glance at (4) 90+ day delinquencies shows autos, credit cards, and student loans eerily reaching toward the late 2000s levels, while housing remain subdued due to the previously mentioned stagnation dynamics. So what I'm wondering (and happy to hear ideas) is what helps to fuel household consumption growth another year or two years without the ability to tap home equity, without notably lower borrowing costs, with declining home ownership rate, with non-mortgage debt eating into budgets, etc?