The focus of the market this week is tariffs, but the true trend of the market is determined by next week's inflation data. Why? There was a talk here two weeks ago: on the whole, the impact of tariff or trade negotiation itself on the market will be smaller and smaller (because it is difficult to talk about it, and the impact will not be large, and the mood will be boosted after the discussion is finished). Unless Trump directly makes the tariff take effect immediately, it seems that it will not do so before August 1. We have discussed here before: Does the already implemented tariff (10% benchmark tax rate) have any impact on inflation and to what extent? It is the narrative with the greatest macro weight in the foreseeable future, which determines the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Essentially, whether the expectation of interest rate cuts will be strengthened or dispelled. This is the main contradiction in the market for the next one or two months.