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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|7月 10, 2025 15:59
BREAKING: The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet declined by -13 billion in June, to 6.66 trillion, the lowest since April 2020. Over the last 3 years, the Fed has reduced its asset holdings by -2.31 trillion, or -26%. During this period, the value of Treasury holdings has dropped by -1.56 trillion, to 4.21 trillion, the lowest since June 2020. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have fallen -590 billion, to 2.14 trillion, the lowest since March 2021. Despite the reduction, the size of the central bank’s balance sheet remains +2.5 trillion, or +60%, above its pre-pandemic levels. We are still far from undoing pandemic-era stimulus.
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Timeline

8月 08, 21:07【Monthly trading volume on Coinbase exchange steadily declines】
8月 08, 20:41【Short positions in the US dollar drop to a four month low】
8月 08, 19:45【The bet against the US dollar has dropped to its lowest level in four months】
8月 08, 19:00【Production is declining】
8月 08, 18:41【The market expects to cut 3 and 4 times by 2026】
8月 08, 17:50【Centralized exchange BTC balance drops by about 9000 BTC】
8月 08, 17:42【ETH experienced a significant pullback】
8月 08, 16:54【The decline of revolving credit for American consumers】
8月 08, 15:45【Economic cooling puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates】
8月 08, 15:27【The volatility of Bitcoin has been rapidly decreasing】

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