The CPI will be released again tonight, and my big idea remains the same as last week, that is, the CPI data for this month will rebound due to tariffs. However, analyzing solely from a data perspective may be a bit weak. From the perspective of out of stock strategy logic, the rebound logic has even been further strengthened. Since Trump found that the over budget attack with the decoration of the Federal Reserve headquarters was effective last week, it seemed that sharks had tasted the smell of blood. Trump Group used this as a breakthrough to besiege Powell, which made him a little difficult to parry. So far, it has developed to the point where Powell has requested a re audit of the Federal Reserve's internal supervisory structure to prove his innocence. However, no matter what, the overspending of 600 million yuan is still very easy to find loopholes, which means that the probability of Powell resigning is no longer zero. From the perspective of Powell's counterattack, the higher the data this time, the better. If a low inflation data is given, then the fact that he cut interest rates too late will be confirmed, and the public opinion pressure and political attack intensity that he will face if he does not cut interest rates in July will be even greater. Although from a practical economic perspective, the interest rate cut in 2024 is already due to half a year's delay in cooperating with Biden's campaign, Trump is indeed right to blame him. But Powell can't just admit it and give in. You may still remember that on July 1st, Powell hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in July at the European Central Bank meeting in Portugal, and the market even gave some feedback at that time. But just two weeks later, it seems that we can rule out this possibility, for a simple reason. If the interest rate will be cut at the end of July, Trump will not be able to attack him crazily. Trump's strategy seems to be thoughtless. He forgot whether it was the fable story in Yilin or Readers. The sun and the wind bet who could make a man wrapped in an overcoat take off his clothes quickly. In the end, the strong wind exerted its nursing strength and only made people wrap their coats tighter, while the sun only showed a small amount of heat and the person took off their coats. If Trump really wants Powell to cut interest rates, it seems that he should adopt the sun strategy, try every means to build a good peripheral stage for Master Bao from the public opinion and data, so that the interest rate cut will come naturally. Now Trump has changed his moves back to this way. No matter who comes on the stage, it's hard to do it. After the newcomers come here, the market will think that the lack of independence of the Federal Reserve will become a puppet of Trump. If the interest rate is not cut quickly, the market will think that Trump has lost control of the Federal Reserve again, which makes it even worse that the two chairmen of the Federal Reserve nominated by him have betrayed him. Such a dilemma is the performance of Trump's low political ability. He doesn't think so much about what he wants to say. People around him can't see the flattering eyes and dare not raise objections. Speaking of tonight's data, The pre annual CPI value is 2.4%, with an expected value of 2.7%, The core CPI pre annual value is 2.8%, and the expected value is 3.0%. Cleveland and Nick both gave CPI2.6% and core CPI2.9%, When actually published, it is estimated that the article was written on the decimal point. The monthly rate estimation is also similar, CPI/Core CPI monthly rate pre-0.1% expected value 0.3%, Cleveland gave 0.25% and 0.23%, Nick gave 0.27% and 0.25%, 0.02% higher than Cleveland's