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qinbafrank
qinbafrank|7月 16, 2025 12:55
The just released PPI data for June in the United States fell short of expectations and were lower than previous values, especially with PPI and core PPI month on month rates both being 0%, significantly below expectations. PPI, as a wholesale price index, is upstream of inflation CPI and PCE data, indicating that June PCE data should be very good, and even has preliminary indications for July inflation data. It is a positive data for the market. The day before yesterday, it was said that 'greed is harder to reverse than fear', which undoubtedly boosted market sentiment and future interest rate cut expectations. The PPI Producer Price Index, from producers to wholesalers, has significantly decreased without reflecting the impact of tariffs. I personally think there are two reasons: First, today's tweet "What does Trump really want on tariffs?" https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1945331418621731073? In s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A, it is mentioned that taking Japan as an example, under the background of a 10% benchmark tariff and automobile tariff, Japanese car companies must ensure market share even if they cut profits in order to avoid price increases locally as much as possible. Japanese companies bear 17.7% of the 25% automobile tariff, while American import companies and consumers only bear 7.3%, indicating that Japanese car manufacturers have absorbed most of the costs brought about by the tariff. Equivalent to manufacturers and importers digesting a lot of tariff costs themselves The weakening of the service industry and the lower than expected PPI data in June are largely due to the decline in service industry prices. Yesterday's CPI data showed that the core CPI month on month was also lower than expected. Previously, https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/1923195906935095776? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A It has been discussed here that we should pay attention to the fact that deflation in the service industry offsets the increase in tariffs.
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Timeline

8月 15, 12:30The monthly retail sales rate in July in the United States was 0.5%
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