Let's talk about two perspectives on watching the US stock earnings season from a macro perspective and three medium - to long-term factors that affect performance: instead of discussing the specific financial performance of a company, let's look at the macro perspective presented in the earnings season. I personally think there are two main aspects: 1. What is the true performance of US consumption from the earnings season. The four representative companies here are Bank of America, Wal Mart costa、 Amazon. 1) As the largest commercial bank in the United States, Bank of America's financial report includes important consumer data and credit conditions of American residents. As stated in the second quarter financial report and the CEO of Bank of America, "Net interest income has increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by growth in deposits and loans. Consumer spending remains resilient, asset quality is good, and commercial borrowing utilization has increased." This means that consumption is supported 2) Wal Mart, Costa and Amazon are representatives of American commodity consumption. Their financial report data can show the consumption characteristics of high-income people and low-income people in the United States. The financial reports of the three companies in the first quarter were all good, showing that the consumption of American residents remains strong. Amazon's financial report for the second quarter will be released this week, and the performance will be evaluated at that time. 2. From the financial report, the biggest theme of the US stock market: how is the development of the AI industry and what are the demands? And the performance of the pillar technology companies in the US stock market. 1) The AI mainline mainly focuses on semiconductor company ASML's lithography machine orders, as well as the backlog of undelivered orders, TSMC's business data and future prospects (indicating how strong downstream demand is), Nvidia's growth rate and future prospects. (Means the most important strong demand situation) From the currently disclosed financial reports: ASML's performance in the second quarter was strong, with total revenue of 7.7 billion euros and net profit of 2.3 billion euros, both within the guidance limit and exceeding expectations. At the same time, it also provided strong guidance for a total revenue growth of about 15% and a gross profit margin of about 52% for the whole year. TSMC's second quarter profit recorded the highest quarterly profit performance in years, highlighting the urgent demand for advanced processes in TSMC's AI wave. For the outlook of the second half of the year, TSMC believes that the demand for AI chip customers will remain very strong in the second half of the year, and non AI application chips will also moderately recover. Therefore, TSMC has revised up its full year outlook for this year. If priced in US dollars, TSMC's annual revenue growth rate can reach 30% Nvidia reported in late August, but based on the financial reports of Asmara and TSMC, the development speed of AI is still very fast. This is due to the strong demand for tokens brought about by the continuous evolution of AI towards applications. 2) Looking at the financial reports of several major technology companies: observing the progress of AI applications and commercialization, examining capital expenditures, and looking at the performance outlook for the next quarter. Among big tech companies, only Google has released its Q2 financial report: strong performance, increasing capital expenditures, and a positive outlook. This week's micro meta、 Amazon and Apple's financial reports will be released, and I personally think they should both be good. In addition to looking at quarterly financial reports, I think there are three medium - to long-term factors that need special attention to affect the performance of American companies: 1. The weakening of the US dollar: The depreciation of the US dollar has increased the value of American companies' overseas income, which means that foreign exchange earnings can be converted into more US dollars. At the same time, this also makes the export of American goods more competitive. 2. The deduction of capital expenditure for tax reduction in the Great Beauty Act: the deduction of R&D expenditure and depreciation of fixed assets investment of enterprises in the Great Beauty Act have given very generous incentives. Whether it is oil and gas exploration enterprises, local semiconductor manufacturers in the United States who are building in a big way, or defense contractors under the new round of military expenditure expansion, they have received more capital injection and preferential tax policies. Since the second half of this year, capital expenditure in these industries is expected to expand significantly. 3. From layoff strategy to strategic layoffs Recently, Microsoft CEO Nadella emphasized in an internal open letter that the company is "more successful than ever" but still needs to cut positions. This means that in the past, the layoff strategy of large companies would become strategic layoffs, and profitable layoffs would become the new normal. The replacement of manual labor by AI is strengthening, indicating that the industry revolution under the impact of AI is about to come. As AI increasingly replaces people in business processes such as coding and production environments, strategic layoffs in large companies will become more common in the future, and the effectiveness of cost reduction and efficiency improvement will be stronger.