1. Ambiguous GDP2. Inconsistent understanding of the Federal Reserve's "main contradiction" Looking at other data (if the non farm data is true) 🤔）： PCE&Non Farm Employment&Manufacturing PMI ① PCE can be understood as a 'mild inflation rebound', and the gradual rise of core PCE in Q2 is already within everyone's expectations. However, in the process of rising prices, we see that consumer spending has not increased, indicating that ordinary consumers are partially bearing the pressure of increased consumption costs. ② The main contribution of the reduction in non-agricultural employment is the decrease in government employment. Although it is relatively better than the decrease in private sector employment, the secondary market's response is clearly more sensitive to this non-agricultural data due to the large downward revision. ③ The manufacturing PMI=48 has reached its lowest level in nearly 10 months. Friends who often read my tweets should know that I have always been skeptical of the so-called "manufacturing return theory". It is reasonable for the manufacturing PMI to weaken, which also occurred during the tariff war 1.0 period. So when GDP is ambiguous, the rest of the data highlights the weakness issue more - economic data leads labor data, which in turn leads inflation&consumption data, and individuals are more inclined to believe that this is a week of weak economic data. The dilemma of the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates lies in the uncertainty of the vote committee as to whether the "main contradiction" is to lower inflation or maintain employment. If inflation is considered the main contradiction, then we should take a wait-and-see approach. If employment is considered the main contradiction, then we should cut interest rates. Therefore, if the employment data continues to deteriorate and more voters shift their thinking to 'employment is the main contradiction', then the interest rate cut will be close. *After a shallow interest rate cut, the long-term interest rate may rise rapidly, but the impact on trading can be considered later [3. Transaction level] Although it is impossible to attribute the economic weakness to high interest rates or tariffs, the market is actively trading in the decline of short-term interest rates (interest rate cut trading). As shown in the citation, although it was believed that this week's data combination would lead to a steepening of the interest rate curve, a mistake was made at the trading level - the steepening mainly contributed to the short-term decline rather than the long-term rise. The difference at the trading level is that the former is (short-term interest rate ↓+stock market ↓+cryptocurrency market ↓), while the latter is (long-term interest rate ↑+stock market ↑+cryptocurrency market ↑), but fortunately, the early establishment of gold bulls offset some losses. The follow-up idea is to establish long positions in batches. 1) If the economy continues to deteriorate, it will first plummet and then cut interest rates. 2) If this non farm payroll data is an unexpected event, then the next healthy data will be pulled back. Therefore, slowly establishing low leverage ETH (altcoin) long positions in a healthy correction will be my subsequent strategy. Due to the uncertainty of whether non farm employment is a single abnormal data, it is impossible to obtain a clear bottom line. Therefore, I will base my position on the dip low of short-term interest rates caused by the three recession trades since Trump took office. Today, we have reached the first low point of 3.7%, followed by 3.6% and 3.45%.