Using Berry's question, let's talk about what Milan wants in a strong dollar and a weak dollar? What will happen to the independence of the Federal Reserve? Looking at Milan's report 'User Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System', I believe that Milan's strategy for the US dollar is based on the strong position of the US dollar in the US dollar index. The difference here is that: 1) the US dollar index is closer to the market's perception of the strength of the US dollar, while the US dollar index is more related to interest rates, economic fundamentals, and the strength of a basket of rival currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, etc; 2) The status of the US dollar is related to its overall leadership position in the world (affecting the weight of reserve currencies), its weight as a payment currency in international trade, its comprehensive national strength, and essentially whether the United States can still lead the world and reshape order. Have we talked about https://(((x.com))/qinba frank/status/1860990136189931989 long ago? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A From this perspective, Milan wants a weak dollar index/exchange rate, but a strong dollar position. Now we can see from the concept of Milan and the path rhythm being implemented by Trump Besant: 1) Starting a tariff war, on the one hand, we can obtain tariff revenue (from the former annual tariff revenue of US $60 billion to this year's estimated tariff revenue of US $300 billion, which may be more in 26 years), on the other hand, we can knock down the trade barriers of various countries to the United States. From the perspective of current trade negotiations, most countries have opened their markets to the United States, which is basically tariff free or very low. This is also beneficial for the export of American goods 2) Many people have doubts about forcing other countries to invest in the United States. My opinion is that as long as a part of the industry returns, it is also good. Having it is better than not having it at all, and having some is better than having a little bit. https://((((x.com))))/qinbafrank/status/1907193094497603763? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A 3) Then the weak dollar index (exchange rate) can further ensure the competitiveness of American goods. 4) The equivalent tariff is a saying. Because the import tariff of other countries to the United States was much higher than that of the United States, Milan and Trump are both promoting trade equivalence. But now the negotiations have completely reversed. Other countries have lowered their tariffs on the United States to very low or even zero, while the United States has increased its tariffs on other countries to an average rate of over 16%. As for the independence of the Federal Reserve, I think that as long as Trump does not try to fire Powell, the market will not be particularly worried about independence. And this appointment of Milan as an interim director, as discussed in the morning, will gradually make the market accept and reduce the impact on the market. Furthermore, the stock market should be more welcoming of interest rate cuts than the bond market, as there is also a group of "bond guardians" in the bond market. Of course, this is also the biggest policy constraint in the era of fiscal expansion 2.0 after the passage of the Great Beauty Act, which was previously discussed. One important result of this nomination is that Trump accepted Besant to stay in the Ministry of Finance, which is very important. As a rational adult in the White House, https://((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1922078377407561973? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， As long as Besant is still in office, he can also influence Trump's decision-making and pull Trump back from the state of "doing". The path of monetary policy is likely to change. First of all, starting from 2023, the US economy has actually entered a more fiscal driven logic. https://(((x.com))/qinbank/status/19446627104044415721? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， Monetary policy has become the second most important factor, although it still has a significant impact on asset price trends. In this case, fiscal policy running ahead of monetary policy will definitely affect the purpose, path, and pace of monetary policy.