𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Aug 23, 2025 13:48
As Powell's tenure ends, the last vestiges of the veil of central bank independence are eroding. Debt to GDP levels press historical highs across the developed world. Weakening demographics tighten the labor market despite record low positive job growth. The necessities of sovereign survival will soon bind the hands of the Fed, either through committee capitulation (as in 1942) or the commandeering of their mandate by Congress. The pieces are in place for an epochal shift toward outright financial repression- a race to stimulate growth across the economy at a positive delta to the inflation indexed cost of entitlement- to burn nominal GDP hotter than the exploding cost of public liabilities. Savings will be corralled into the killing pens of fixed income and new fences will be erected to prevent capital from escaping into safer homes. The freedom of savings to choose its home, a growing feature of the global status quo for half a century, will necessarily be put in reverse. Along this path, volatility from these new policies will likely heighten the tensions between sovereigns competing for capital for their own survival. New crises will need to emerge to organize the public's fear and cauterize their acceptance of radical change. As we saw with Covid, some new fabric of fear will be unfurled as leverage to guide draconian policy that would be rejected under normal conditions. Liberties will be lost. Broad money growth will be required to accelerate, likely through a combination of lighter bank regulations, contingent federal loan guarantees for key industries, and direct stimulus to households. Current broad money growth in most DM economies is much lower than what is needed to sustain the high levels of nominal GDP they're likely to seek. In many ways, this tale is as old as time itself. The human story on repeat, live and uncut. There is no guarantee any of these efforts will succeed at rebalancing the economy relative to debt, but they still must (and will) try. Their failure would assuredly drag the global economy into a deflationary abyss that could take a decade or more to recover from. To avoid the downward spiral, they will instead *try* to catalyze an upward spiral using the only tools they understand. A cyclone instead of a drain spout. Like painting with a fire hose.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)
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