
qinbafrank|Sep 05, 2025 00:04
We are all discussing various micro strategies, and there is no risk for treasury companies. In my personal opinion, 'most models have no risk, but people have risk'. How do you understand this sentence? The so-called model has no risk: Currently, the mainstream gameplay of various micro strategies DAT is to first raise funds through PIPE, and then issue stocks to raise funds through ATM market prices. Of course, except for MSTR, other micro strategies have not yet reached the stage of issuing various types of convertible bonds and senior bonds. That means these micro strategy companies have basically no debt (funds are all from issuing additional stocks), and they hold only spot stocks. And these treasury companies have very few personnel, so the operating costs are actually not high. Even if the value of the held currency falls, accounting for impairment provision does not require selling the position, it is just a financial accounting tool.
Unlike ETFs, trusts, and various funds, when the market weakens and customers redeem in large numbers, they are forced to sell their positions. At least for now, these micro strategies: no debt, spot positions, even if the market drops sharply, as long as you want to resist, you can withstand it.
Even for companies like Mstr that have issued a large number of convertible bonds and senior bonds in the past two years, many people are worried that they may have to sell the big cake in order to pay interest. In fact, Mstr had previously said, 'In the future, we will issue bonds to raise funds and buy big cakes. ATM will issue stocks at market price to repay loans (pay interest).' The market situation in 2022 is very poor, and the daily trading volume of Mstr is still one or two hundred million US dollars. It is not a problem for ATM to raise hundreds of millions of US dollars at market price to pay interest within one year.
So why do we say 'people have risks'? It means that the major shareholders of these micro strategy companies and the' Tom Lees' really want to become 'Michael Saylor' who is determined to raise funds, buy coins, and hoard coins, regardless of market conditions. Or, they are all using the name of the micro strategy leader of a certain token to play capital operations, raise funds, buy coins, and take over their own business. When the market is not easy to run, they are faster than anyone else. Of course, there is no problem with actively selling positions, and even if the market hits bottom in the future and buys them back, many people may still praise it. Just during the period of selling positions, it will exacerbate the pessimistic sentiment and tone of the market. So the model has no risk, people have risk.
Of course, personally, I still believe that some micro strategy treasury companies really want to become MSTRs, rather than just playing around. That real Tom Lee also looks like he really wants to be Michael Saylor, and it doesn't seem like he's just talking casually. Of course, the absence of risk in the mode does not mean that the stock price is risk-free. After all, DAT micro strategies are very unfriendly to stock holdings, and can only be held for a certain period of time, which can easily lead to a rollercoaster ride.
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