My viewpoint is very similar to that of Brother Wu, but if I take a closer look, this wave should have started from the beginning of 2023, after all, it did fall quite sharply until the end of 2022: From early 2023 to March 2023, this period marks the transition of the Federal Reserve from high-speed rate hikes to gradual rate hikes. From April 2024 to October 2023, the period was mainly characterized by fluctuations, mainly due to the market digesting BlackRock's application for spot ETFs. The market had applied many times and had been rejected, so many old OGs did not care. However, Wall Street and some American investors familiar with BlackRock began to smell a different flavor. After all, it was the king of ETFs who made the move, and BlackRock's ETF application has never failed. Starting from mid October 2023 and continuing until January 11, 2024, there is no doubt that the market is playing a game with BlackRock's application for a spot ETF. As more and more evidence suggests that BlackRock will pass, the market has been giving a strong reaction. During this period, upon careful consideration, is it similar to the 2024 election? In January 2024, BTC experienced a painful two-week period where its price dropped from a high of nearly $49000 to a low of $38500. At that time, many investors believed that BlackRock's ETF had turned negative by selling a large amount of money, mainly Sell The News. This money was the first bucket of gold earned by the earliest Bitcoin spot ETF investors. Starting from the end of January 2024 and continuing until mid March 2024, although there were only two months left, BTC nearly doubled from its bottom to a peak of nearly $74000. At the same time, the US stock market was also rising, mainly due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates, but in reality, the Fed has been dragging on, and market sentiment has not been good since April. From April to October 2024, both the US stock market and Bitcoin showed a volatile trend, with BTC experiencing a larger amplitude and the US stock market corresponding better. ETF investors experienced their first low point period. At this time, the cryptocurrency field did not respond very much to Trump, but the US stock market started to reflect whether Trump could take office a month in advance. From the beginning of November 2024 to January 21, 2025, Trump is in a good mood. Both US stocks and cryptocurrencies are expecting Trump to fulfill its promise, pull up the US economy and build strategic reserves for BTC. But at this time, there is still bad news. Although the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates at the end of the year, it poses a greater threat to the market, because the dot matrix at that time was that Trump would only cut interest rates twice in 2025. At this time, Trump was still saying that he would support Powell. From the end of January 2025 to the beginning of April 2025, it is all tariffs that dominate the market, and the shadow of tariffs hangs over the entire risk market. In particular, tariff competition with China has cooled US stocks and BTC from the beginning to the end. During this period, the market has made all kinds of comments, even said that Trump deliberately caused the decline of the US economy, and finally drew a curtain of decline in Trump's tariff extension. From mid April to the end of May 2025, it will be the last time for Bitcoin spot ETFs to experience a significant outbreak. Since June, the BTC spot market and the primary and secondary markets of spot ETFs have fallen into a slump. Although prices are still fluctuating upwards, it is mainly due to favorable policies and the US stock market. During this period, there is also a lot of uncertainty interfering with the market, but overall, there are two things: 1. Trump, Musk and the Beautiful Bill. 2. Trump's TACO (Trump has been shrinking, mainly focusing on tariff related). From June 2025 to now, although tariffs and geopolitical conflicts will also interfere with the market, the most important game has become the game between Trump and the Federal Reserve, the market and the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve itself. On the contrary, at present, the funding level is not very friendly to BTC, and more attention has been paid to ETH, which has led ETH out of a golden cycle. In this short period of time, the amount of ETH spot ETF funds even exceeded BTC. If we really talk about this wave of rise, ETFs are undoubtedly the biggest driving force, making Bitcoin completely compliant in the United States and bringing in the first batch of massive external funds. This period is also a time when a large number of "old OGs" have fallen short. Most people do not believe that BlackRock and Americans will come to support BTC, at least they have to smash it first and then pull it back. It is precisely this time that the history of Dogecoin, which represents the wild growth of BTC, is completely useless. It is now rare to hear that BTC's fluctuations are caused by Dogecoin cutting leeks or institutional joint ETF games. At a deeper level, the US political arena is paying close attention to BTC and cryptocurrency. It should be noted that both spot ETFs were approved by SEC Chairman Gary Biden during the Biden administration. The overall political landscape in the US no longer regards BTC as a flood and fraud, but as a new type of economic product. There are also stablecoins. Whether political theory has promoted capital (BlackRock) or capital has promoted politics, Trump is indeed the first US president to bring cryptocurrency to a new political height, which should not be denied. However, many small partners have ignored that the rise in this whole stage is almost brought by external funds, and has little relationship with the market of cryptocurrency itself. Only a few cryptocurrencies can catch up with this dividend, mainly because of the tightening of the Federal Reserve. If there is no ETF, no election, no Trump, what is the current BTC like? The rate is still within 70000 dollars. Because there is no capital overflow in the cryptocurrency field, there is no copycat season. To sum up, 25 years ago it was ETF and Trump's FOMO, 25 years later it will be Trump and Trump will lose. This article is sponsored by Bitget | @ Bitgetzh