The underlying logic of transactions Go find a river and sit by the river with a Mazza to watch. Then search for the geographical anatomy map of this river online, with a focus on the riverbed. The ups and downs of the riverbed determine the flow rate, the seasonal changes determine the amount of river water, and finally it is the river surface you observe while sitting on the Mazza. After understanding, put this river into your mind. Take the knowledge of the river to see the trading of this river. 1/First look at the river surface, then look at the riverbed Market fluctuations, news, capital flows, and abnormal market movements are all part of the river. But what truly determines the flow rate, where water comes from, and where it goes, is the riverbed. The height of the riverbed corresponds to the structure of the market. Seasonal climate corresponds to macro cycles and policy orientations. The climate of a region corresponds to the characteristics of different markets and assets. With more funds, increased transactions, and intensified volatility, it's like a surge in water volume. But it should be noted that the water surface is just an appearance. I want to know why the flow is fast and why it suddenly dries up. I need to go see the riverbed. Put the river in your mind You have to learn to look at the terrain and understand why funds flow and where they are going. From macro cycles to industry supply and demand, from credit conditions to market structure, These are underground waterways, not surface waves. When is there more water, why is there more; When the flow rate is fast, which areas are prone to problems. Think of an answer for yourself first, then predict and wait according to the pattern. There is less water in spring and more water after rain in summer. If it is predicted to be the same next year, then wait until next year to verify. Predict, verify, re predict, re verify. As your ability to see the river increases, your understanding of the market will also become deeper and your predictions will become more accurate. 3/Risk control before prediction When you can detect anomalies in advance through changes in traffic and speed, You can evacuate before the flood comes. It's like seeing an increase in rainfall and an unstable dam, You know the risks here, even if there were no floods this time, The danger will only be higher next time. Being able to withdraw early is because you understand that market risk is not on the day of the event, but at the moment when the trend accumulates. 4/From observer to participant The constantly happening events in the market, such as skyrocketing, plummeting, public opinion fluctuations, and emotional contagion. Frequent occurrences without anyone stopping indicate that the accumulated energy is increasing. If you don't want to be just an observer, I also want to become a participant, Then we need to learn how to eat segments. The so-called eating section means that you already know the temperament of the river, Knowing how something will develop, Just follow the water flow and do your own thing. Various assets, cycles, and strategies, There are always people doing this in the trading world. 5/When looking at the river, one should also look at the people who live by the river Not only do we need to look at the water flow, but we also need to see who is observing this river. Smart funds started reducing their holdings early in the interest rate hike cycle, Institutions adjust their structure during policy shifts, Players like Blackstone and BlackRock are rearranging their strategies during macro level changes. These are people who watch the river, Their actions, in turn, will affect the water flow. 6/Understand That River The market is that river. If you see the river clearly, you can see the market clearly. By understanding the relationship between water and structure, one can comprehend the relationship between funding and pricing. By understanding those who rely on water and economy for survival, one can understand who is driving prices. When you understand how riverbeds shape water flow, Understand how macro determines funds, Understand how funds drive prices, You will understand the underlying logic of the transaction.