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|Legacy
BTCBTC
💲70801.78
+
0.96%
ETHETH
💲2088.83
+
1.33%
SOLSOL
💲88.01
+
2.16%
TRUMPTRUMP
💲3.82
+
29.49%
XRPXRP
💲1.39
+
1.46%
DOGEDOGE
💲0.09600
+
1.74%

Joe Burnett, MSBA
Joe Burnett, MSBA|10月 15, 2025 19:55
MTPLF is a fascinating case study in the bitcoin treasury space. They hold over 3 billion of bitcoin and operate a business that earned ~16 million last quarter through their Bitcoin Income Generation Revenues, which continues to grow at a solid pace. Yet despite strong cash flow, almost no debt, and a large bitcoin treasury, the stock trades at roughly 0.98x mNAV, meaning the market values the company below the the value of its bitcoin holdings alone. Before this year, I would have thought that a profitable operating business with reasonable growth expectations should almost always trade at a premium to its underlying bitcoin, but that is not the case. The market is clearly treating these companies more like closed-end funds, similar to how GBTC traded before it became an ETF. When investors fall out of favor with bitcoin exposure, demand for these companies drops, and prices can slip below NAV, regardless of whether they run a cash-flowing business or an intelligent leverage strategy. Ultimately, it all comes down to how much bitcoin exposure the market wants at any given time. As fiat volatility and fragility rise, bitcoin will likely rotate back into favor, premiums will reappear, and capital will again flow into bitcoin treasury companies. But when the dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens, or other sectors become favored, those same companies can swing back to discounts. I think this is evidence that these businesses are not only trading on fundamentals. They are trading on market sentiment for bitcoin exposure itself. h/t @Adrian_R_Morris(Joe Burnett, MSBA)
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Timeline

11月 12, 10:04Bitcoin's current support and resistance levels are $100,600 and $108,500, respectively.
10月 26, 18:01Bitcoin trading price is $113k
10月 24, 18:57Bitcoin's price may exceed 1 million dollars in the future
10月 23, 18:28Bitcoin has traded above 100,000 for over 190 consecutive days.
10月 22, 14:55The 'flywheel' of Bitcoin Vault Company will fall below 1x mNAV.
10月 21, 13:51Bitcoin trading price is below the average cost basis
10月 19, 17:50Bitcoin trading price upward trend
10月 14, 18:34Bitcoin trading price is below the short-term cost basis
10月 12, 22:36Coinbase's trading price is 67 times mNAV
10月 09, 09:11Bitcoin trading price continues to remain above the cost basis

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