Joe Burnett, MSBA
Joe Burnett, MSBA|Oct 15, 2025 19:55
MTPLF is a fascinating case study in the bitcoin treasury space. They hold over 3 billion of bitcoin and operate a business that earned ~16 million last quarter through their Bitcoin Income Generation Revenues, which continues to grow at a solid pace. Yet despite strong cash flow, almost no debt, and a large bitcoin treasury, the stock trades at roughly 0.98x mNAV, meaning the market values the company below the the value of its bitcoin holdings alone. Before this year, I would have thought that a profitable operating business with reasonable growth expectations should almost always trade at a premium to its underlying bitcoin, but that is not the case. The market is clearly treating these companies more like closed-end funds, similar to how GBTC traded before it became an ETF. When investors fall out of favor with bitcoin exposure, demand for these companies drops, and prices can slip below NAV, regardless of whether they run a cash-flowing business or an intelligent leverage strategy. Ultimately, it all comes down to how much bitcoin exposure the market wants at any given time. As fiat volatility and fragility rise, bitcoin will likely rotate back into favor, premiums will reappear, and capital will again flow into bitcoin treasury companies. But when the dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens, or other sectors become favored, those same companies can swing back to discounts. I think this is evidence that these businesses are not only trading on fundamentals. They are trading on market sentiment for bitcoin exposure itself. h/t @Adrian_R_Morris(Joe Burnett, MSBA)
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