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qinbafrank
qinbafrank|10月 22, 2025 05:41
Why has AI in the US stock market extended from speculating on computing power to speculating on electricity? What is the bottleneck for the real growth of US electricity? Why is it feasible for the market to buy Bitcoin mining companies and transform their AI computing power? Maitong's report is very detailed https://www. ((msx.com))/notice-center-detail/announce09dd58a3, The problem that hinders the expansion of AI giants is not chips, but insufficient electricity, and the predicament of AI giants is not "unable to afford electricity", but "unable to buy instantly available power channels". The essence of power shortage in the United States is not the lack of electricity, but the inability to get electricity. From a total perspective, the US power generation capacity has exceeded 1TW, theoretically there is surplus, but the structural contradiction is extremely prominent: the "mismatch" between power transmission bottlenecks and power density demand is the true scarcity. All new power projects must undergo a multi-year System Impact Study to verify the impact of new loads on grid stability. The average access cycle for new power plants or large-scale AI data centers is 5-7 years; By combining state-level environmental impact assessments, land planning, and power transmission coordination processes, the entire cycle can take up to 10 years. In the early years, Bitcoin mining companies that laid out for mining happened to hold the rarest strategic resource in the United States - approved power access licenses. The essence of Bitcoin mining sites is high-density electricity facilities, and their inherent properties give them a first mover advantage in power resource layout. Mining companies have already completed three core layouts during the initial construction: 1) Apply for a "Large Load Interconnection" license from the state power company; 2) Investing heavily in the construction of supporting substations, transmission lines, and cooling systems; 3) Sign long-term power supply agreements with public utility companies. These pre actions make the electricity license of mining enterprises an "activated account" in the power grid system, with immediate power consumption rights. While the AI data center is still waiting for approval, the mining company's sites can be powered on and operated at any time. According to data from Da Mo, US Bitcoin mining companies have a total of 6.3GW of operational capacity, 2.5GW of under construction projects, and 8.6GW of future capacity reserves that have been approved by the power grid. More importantly, the transformation of these assets into AI facilities only takes 18-24 months, saving 3-5 years compared to building a new AI center. Against the backdrop of AI becoming a national strategic industry and extreme scarcity of power access, this "instant power supply" capability has become an institutional scarce asset, naturally bringing a deterministic valuation premium. The transformation of mining enterprises into AI computing power brings about a dual layer reconstruction of profit and valuation systems: Needham's calculations show that the single MW profit margin of HPC/AI custody business can reach 50-60%, which is 4-6 times higher than the traditional Bitcoin mining model. This directly drives the restructuring of the valuation system: the market assigns a valuation multiple (EV/EBITDA 10-15x) to technology and infrastructure companies for transforming mining enterprises, while the valuation multiple for traditional mining enterprises is only 3-6x. In contrast, the traditional IDC industry faces the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profits" due to the depreciation and amortization pressure caused by heavy asset expansion, highlighting the cost advantage of mining enterprise transformation. The valuation model of Maitong MSX Research Institute shows that when mining companies shift 30-50% of their production capacity to AI hosting, their overall valuation elasticity can reach 2.5-4 times. This restructuring logic is driven by three factors: Bitcoin halving cycle compresses mining profits, the scarcity of electricity licenses highlights transformation value, and AI custody business has long-term cash flow stability. See how many Bitcoin mining companies' stock tokens are also available on Maitong @ MSX_CN https://(msx. com)/? Code=e5PH49 It is more convenient to trade US stocks with stablecoins.
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Timeline

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10月 28, 15:46Bitcoin miners still dominate revenue in AI transformation

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