The U.S. government ended an unprecedented 43-day shutdown, during which a significant amount of economic data was not released on schedule, forcing macroeconomic analysis to rely heavily on projections. The latest CPI data was also not published, significantly amplifying the importance and uncertainty surrounding the next release, as it grants the data agency greater “maneuvering room.” The pivotal event is the December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Previously, markets anticipated a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. However, with rising uncertainty in macroeconomic data, geopolitical tensions, and the AI boom, December rate futures now price in a 50% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Combined with recent remarks from Fed officials, the central bank is highly likely to maintain a hawkish stance through year-end. This approach prioritizes greater policy flexibility, preserving room for risk management and expectation calibration. Any unexpected developments in the macro landscape could significantly impact the Bitcoin market, warranting close attention. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be in a “wait-for-signal” phase, with the 100K USD level acting as a sensitive price point. Any event could potentially trigger a market move. In the options market, both open interest (OI) and trading volume continue to rise, with a notable increase in out-of-the-money option trades. This indicates growing divergence among market participants regarding future outcomes, reflected in slight increases across major implied volatility (IV) maturities. Block trades have also become more active, skew is moving toward equilibrium, and the short-term curve has become more fragmented—all signaling heightened market uncertainty about near-term price movements. Thus, a plausible “reason” emerging as a trigger for a market reversal aligns perfectly with current market dynamics.(Greeks.live)