Dear crypto holder, you just held and survived through 3 years of very tough macroeconomic conditions... Look at the attached PMI (economy’s activity meter). This chart goes back to the 1940's! Years of record breaking contraction, yet crypto survived. And now after all of it, it's looking more likely Powell may not cut rates in December, as odds are falling. But my macro bull thesis has not changed, and here is exactly why.... If Powell doesn't cut rates in December, it doesn’t mean rates won’t keep coming down into 2026. The December rate-cut narrative will be a distraction to many, but not to the macro investor. There are way bigger things in play right now. It would help, but we don’t need a rate cut in December for liquidity to shift. Two more important triggers are already in motion. 1️⃣ QT ends December 1st I can’t highlight enough how important this is. This is the long-term liquidity reversal. The drain stops and bank reserves stabilize. Three years of headwind disappears. 2️⃣ The shutdown ending unlocks nearly 1 trillion from the TGA (FEDs checking account) That’s a short-term liquidity shock that we might see sooner than later. Meaning projects resume and contractors get paid. PMI gets a little spark to exit years of contraction. So even if Powell doesn’t cut in December, the liquidity cycle is already turning. QT ending and the shutdown reopening are enough to flip the business cycle back toward expansion...which is exactly what crypto bulls want to see. Timing liquidity transmission is tough because liquidity can turn fast, but the business cycle can turn slow. Be macro ready.(Dan Gambardello)