It is difficult to tell how the September jobs report will resolve divisions on a fractured Federal Reserve. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jobs-report-bls-september-stock-market-today-11-20-2025/card/september-jobs-report-won-t-help-resolve-fed-divisions-99Bvgq9aecRrxg1lrWUA For the hawks: If your bar to cut was seeing some kind of rapid or significant deterioration that has not been evident in the data, then you will (still) favor staying on hold because "rapid" anything is (still) not in evidence in this report. Little reason to change your outlook or reaction function, which was against more than one cut this year (if that). For the doves: If you were looking for some kind of broad stabilization to suggest another cut might not be needed to insure against the generalized slowing, one month of data wasn't likely to do the trick, especially given 1) the rise in the unemployment rate and 2) how the first print continues to get revised lower once the second month of responses are collected. Two of the last five months have shown negative job growth (that wasn't in evidence on "jobs day" for either month). Job growth initially reported as +22,000 in August is now -4,000, and job growth initially reported as +147,000 in June is now -13,000.(Nick Timiraos)