比特币橙子Trader|Jan 10, 2026 12:06
I just finished reading Glassnode's annual research report.
To be honest, it's a bit torture.
The full title is Clearing the Decks,
It sounds cool, but the actual content density is outrageously high.
If you really read through every page,
You will find that this is not prepared for ordinary small scattering,
But it's for institutions, market makers, and derivatives traders to see.
But the problem is
What it talks about is precisely the most important change in the current market.
So I helped you finish reading the most difficult part of this research report,
Just leave one conclusion you need to know:
Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'defensive state' to an 'offensive readiness'.
And this time, it's not emotions, it's structure.
1、 What is this research report talking about? One sentence version
The core judgment of Glassnode is only one sentence:
The structure that suppressed prices by the end of 2025 has been cleared.
What does it mean?
The leverage has been washed away
The hedging period has expired
The option structure has disintegrated
The selling pressure stage has disappeared
The market can finally're price according to real risk preferences'.
This is what they call Clearing the Decks.
2、 Why can it increase at the beginning of 2026?
There is a crucial but often overlooked data in the research report:
Realized profits, cliff like decline
In the fourth quarter of 2025, most of the time:
Daily realized profit: over 1 billion US dollars
And by late December:
Directly dropped to $184 million
What does this mean?
It means that those who have been making profits at high levels
Repeatedly suppressing the funds sold on the market——
Sold out or no longer want to sell.
Especially for long-term holders,
The throwing pressure has significantly decreased.
This is not 'suddenly there are bulls rushing in',
But after the seller exits, the price naturally increases.
3、 But that doesn't mean it's already a bull market
Glassnode is actually very calm.
They repeatedly emphasized one thing:
Above, there are a lot of locking plates.
Where exactly is it?
92100 to 117400 US dollars
This is a dense area of 'waiting to be untied'.
People who rushed in near the historical high last year,
All the way down to 80000,
When the price comes back now——
Even if the cost is recovered, someone will still leave.
So the essence of this round of market trend is not to 'lift',
But rather:
Digesting the supply above.
4、 A price that determines short-term life and death: 99100 yuan
If you only remember one number,
Glassnode hopes you remember this:
99100 US dollars
This is:
The average cost for short-term holders.
Standing up, what does it represent?
New funds are starting to make money
Market psychology shifts from 'healing' to 'profitability'
Trend structure is necessary to establish
Can't you stand up?
Glassnode directly named a historical comparison:
Failed rebound in Q1 2022
The current data is:
Short term holder MVRV ≈ 0.95
The recent buyers have an average loss of 5%
This is a very dangerous but also crucial position.
5、 The real change actually occurs in derivatives
If you only look at the price,
You will miss the most important part of this research report.
By the end of 2025,
The Bitcoin options market has experienced a historic reset:
The open interest option contract decreased by 45% within one day+
The impact of this matter is very significant.
Because of the previous situation:
Gamma suppression
Hedge lock up price
The state of 'no matter how far you go'
It's completely over.
For the first time, the market can truly reflect emotions.
6、 The signal given by options is very clear: the direction has changed
Several key changes:
Implied volatility hits bottom near Christmas
The premium of put options continues to narrow
Skewness regression towards' neutral/biased '
what's more:
After the New Year, call option trading clearly dominates
This is not crazy FOMO,
But rather:
From defensive hedging to actively betting on price increases.
7、 The cruelest point: The market maker's website has reversed
There is a sentence in the research report that is easily overlooked, but extremely important:
In the range of 95000 to 104000 US dollars,
Market makers are net short sellers.
What does it mean?
Meaning:
Price increase
They are hedging against it
Instead, we need to passively buy
let me put it another way:
The rise in this range is no longer suppressed, but may be amplified instead.
8、 Why is a call option of 95000 yuan crucial?
Glassnode specifically pointed out a detail:
When the spot is still 87000
A call option with an exercise price of 95000 yuan will be continuously purchased
Later, the price surged to 94400 yuan:
There is no obvious profit taking
Sell call options, only a slight increase
What does this mean?
Explain these bulls:
No hurry.
Not a short-term gambler,
People who are willing to wait for the market to come out.
Finally, let's make a big summary
The Glassnode research report did not say:
The bull market has arrived
What they are saying is:
The structure that suppresses prices is gone
The defensive position has withdrawn
Risk appetite is starting to return
The bulls began to launch a planned attack
Bitcoin in 2026 is not a wild start.
But for the first time, it looks like:
A market ready for repricing.
This research report is not easy,
But understanding it,
You will be better than someone who only looks at K-lines,
Leading by one dimension.
If you think this kind of summary of 'reading the hard report for you' is useful,
Give a like/forward to someone who is still struggling with direction.
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