Are you ready for the arrival of winter? ——The psychological limit and lifeline of $65000 The Realized Price (RP) calculates the price at which BTC last moved on the chain, and therefore it is also considered as the average turnover cost of Bitcoin across the entire chain. But in reality, this value has a certain degree of distortion. (Figure 1) Due to a large number of ancient chips being either preserved for a long time or lost, the 'average cost' we see has been severely lowered. At present, the number of BTC held for over 10 years is 3.443 million, and their average turnover cost is only $106.7 (Figure 1 and Figure 2). Although the average cost of holding for more than 5-7 years is also very low, it is clearly closer to the "real" compared to others; (Figure 2) Therefore, by using an algorithm to remove chips holding 10y+from the cost statistics, we can obtain a more accurate "BTC historical average turnover cost". The purple line in Figure 3 is<10y_RP, and the yellow line is ordinary RP. We can see that in the early stages, the purple and yellow lines were almost glued together, and the difference became larger as we progressed. Currently, RP is $55000, while<10y_RP is $65000. (Figure 3) From historical data, whenever the price of BTC falls below<10y_RP, it means that the market has entered a deep bear phase, and it is difficult for the price to rebound beyond this line. The entire process takes "monthly" or even "quarterly" as the time unit. Until one day, BTC re stands at<10y_RP, and it's not an exaggeration to say that this process is the bottom range of a bear market. At the coldest time of the harsh winter market here, many people, including institutions, project teams, and platforms, will collapse here, leading to black swan events and triggering panic and despair. That is to say, if the BTC price remains above 10y_RP, there is still hope for a shallow bear; Once it falls below, there is a high probability that it will follow the path of a deep bear. Currently, the BTC price has just received support at $65000 (<10y_RP), indicating that this round of correction has reached the psychological limit that the market can bear. Is it a desperate survival or a deep quagmire? We don't know, what we can do is to prepare an "execution plan" in advance to deal with the worst-case scenario that may arise next. ----------------------------------------------- The above is only for learning exchange and not for investment advice!