This question is very good, I don't know if my answer is correct, but I do think so: The recent surge in WTI between the United States and Iran was the reason for the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. As the war progressed, oil prices began to decline from their peak due to the release of more supply from OPEC and other oil producing countries, and the market gradually absorbed the war premium. The last increase before this was from 2011 to 2014, mainly due to two reasons: the war in Libya, the nuclear sanctions on Iran that are almost the same as now, and later the oversupply of shale oil in the United States, which led to a decrease in oil prices. The significant upward trend continued from 2007 to 2009, which was due to OPEC's significant production cuts to stabilize oil prices after the financial crisis. OPEC's crude oil production in 2009 was 2.5 million barrels per day lower than in 2008, directly reducing market supply. This is the reason for the three significant increases, which are basically due to geopolitical surges or sanctions against oil producing countries. The core issue is the rise caused by insufficient supply, and there is almost no "violent rebound" when there is sufficient supply. So if the conflict between the United States and Iran ends this time and passage resumes in Hormuz, the first thing that will disappear is the war premium. The oil price may not fall below pre war levels all the way, as OPEC can reduce the release of supply to stabilize prices, but the possibility of a violent rebound directly before new supply restrictions is not high. So I tend to believe that it is reasonable for WTI to return to the vicinity of the region before the US Iran war, and whether it can continue to rise in the future depends on whether the supply side tightens again. The real big trend in oil prices usually does not occur when supply is very loose.