Original: Zhu Likun, Qiu Hao, Guan Yiwen, LatePost

Editor: Guan Yiwen

Two days before taking office as President of the United States, the Trump team seized the last window of opportunity to promote, launching the meme coin $TRUMP. This cryptocurrency has no utility; it reflects the most fundamental logic of the trading market—when more people want to buy than sell, the price goes up; conversely, it goes down.

This marks the peak of Trump's series of promotions. During the election, he sold a "Fight Fight Fight" perfume for $199 a bottle, "Never Surrender" sneakers for $399, and Trump watches for as much as $100,000, appealing to both ordinary people and wealthy fans.

"Fight Fight Fight" is a slogan that emerged after Trump survived an assassination attempt, and it also appears on the official logo of $TRUMP.

A bubble formed in an instant and quickly dissipated. The price of $TRUMP soared from less than $1 to over $75 within a day and a half of its launch, giving it a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $75 billion based on a total issuance of 1 billion tokens, briefly surpassing the market cap of Dogecoin, which was promoted by Elon Musk. However, $TRUMP plummeted to less than half its peak price in just another day and a half.

A few early participants made a fortune, while many followers lost money, leading to diverging life paths. Of course, the most direct beneficiaries were the Trump team that issued the coin. Coinbase executive Conor Grogan stated that even without selling any tokens, the Trump team earned about $58 million in transaction fees within a day.

This confirms a simple fact: In a purely speculative market, the only guaranteed way to make money is to "open a casino." This article attempts to document the experiences of participants in this absurd trading event within 48 hours after the launch of Trump Coin.

Betting $600,000 Before Trump Tweets

“Moonshot! Moonshot!” At 9 PM EST on January 17 (all times are EST), a sudden shout erupted in 0xSun's headphones as several cryptocurrency players excitedly yelled in the group. Moonshot is a platform where meme coins can be traded using fiat currency.

0xSun was in a small group with these individuals, accustomed to spending six to seven hours a day in voice chat, buying and selling coins while sharing their trading strategies, resembling friends playing games together. The game was thrilling; they could make hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in a few hours, or lose everything.

The person shouting "Moonshot" simultaneously shared a link in the group announcing that Trump had launched $TRUMP on his media platform, Truth. At this point, he was only two days away from officially taking office as President of the United States.

“This might be the biggest opportunity since I joined the crypto space,” 0xSun thought. However, this unexpected event seemed somewhat absurd—how could a president launch a worthless token? It felt more like a hacker's work—something quite common in the crypto world.

“Celebrate our victory, have fun!” the official website of $TRUMP stated. The site repeatedly emphasized that this coin does not represent any investment opportunity and is unrelated to politics.

This is the classic appearance of a meme coin, initially having no real value, no so-called fundamentals, and often jokingly referred to as "air coins." An online joke or a meme can turn into a meme coin. Its value only depends on how many people are willing to believe it has value and are willing to spend money to buy it, making it a preferred tool for various scams.

Uncertain whether to buy, 0xSun received an alert from his blockchain monitoring system three minutes after the $TRUMP launch, signaling the start of a race measured in seconds—one of the blockchain addresses he had been monitoring had begun buying.

That long string of characters forming the address is referred to in the crypto community as "smart money," indicating accounts that have performed well in past trades. 0xSun recalled that this trader was under 20 years old, had made a lot of money, and did not pursue win rates but aimed to buy early in new projects to gain a cost advantage.

Another ten minutes passed before the various crypto communities 0xSun was part of began discussing $TRUMP, with most people questioning how absurd this coin was.

At this point, 0xSun had already started buying $TRUMP at a rate of $20,000 per minute, getting in earlier than most with a very low cost. He discovered on his monitoring system that the Moonshot platform had officially listed $TRUMP within minutes, even before the platform made an announcement. Moonshot was relatively compliant, which made him more confident that the official collaboration had been arranged in advance rather than being a hacker's act. Several traders quickly judged to buy based on this point.

0xSun kept his eyes glued to three computer screens in front of him, opening two trading pages and repeatedly clicking refresh. The trading platform began to lag and crash; not every transaction was successful, and he felt a bit nervous. Within about half an hour, he had bought $600,000 worth of $TRUMP at an average cost of $0.6—this very low cost allowed him to make a significant profit a few hours later. 0xSun became one of the first recognized individuals in the crypto space to make a lot of money from $TRUMP.

“Great traders have their own intelligence systems,” said a trader known as doso.eth. “If this system is good enough, it’s like having a heavenly eye.”

0xSun is an on-chain player, trading directly on the blockchain. Compared to operating on exchanges like Binance, this method is “limitless freedom, but also limitless risk.” Therefore, on-chain players must make good use of data analysis tools, gather intelligence, and constantly track important developments related to trading—it's both a mental and physical effort.

Famous Names, Doge Heads, Sad Frogs—No Difference for Early Buyers

“We’ve encountered too many projects that seem to be hacked; analyzing data and gathering intelligence is our muscle memory,” said another on-chain player, Moon. She has made over $1 million in profits from $TRUMP.

Among the thousands of new meme coins released every day, 99% will lose all their value. Some meme coins are scams from the start, with project teams suddenly disappearing after attracting massive funds. The crypto community refers to such scams as “rug pulls,” literally meaning “pulling the rug,” vividly describing how unexpected these scams can be.

Moon has only been in the industry for two and a half years but has adapted well to this rapidly changing market. She usually studies projects and makes decisions quickly within five to six minutes. If she misjudges, she simply reflects on the issue without wasting time on emotions. “While you’re hesitating and giving yourself a mental massage, you might have already missed the next opportunity,” she said in a flat tone.

Bond, who has been in the industry for seven years, is not afraid of scams. Like 0xSun, he chose to “go for it” when most people were skeptical about $TRUMP. Because he bought early, he turned a $1 million investment into a 20-fold return.

Bond experienced a scam where the fraudster initially injected $100 million into the liquidity pool for self-promotion. The token's market cap skyrocketed over three days, and just as all participants were celebrating, the pool was suddenly withdrawn.

“If you run fast, you can make money.” Bond thought that even if $TRUMP was such a large scam, he believed he could use his experience to exit earlier than others, outrunning the scammers.

At 9:44 PM, Trump’s Twitter account finally announced $TRUMP. By this time, 0xSun had already finished his buying operations, holding one-thousandth of the total $TRUMP supply.

On-chain transaction data is publicly transparent. Moon checked the on-chain wallet profit situation, “Over 400 addresses have made more than $1 million, and I know over 100 of those people.” She believes that most of these individuals are “ordinary people” without any connections or insider information, relying solely on technical analysis to obtain information.

In the hour that 0xSun's wealth skyrocketed, crypto celebrities were dressed in black suits and bow ties, hosting a ball in a hall a few blocks from the White House. Tickets priced at $2,500 sold out quickly, and some spent $100,000 for VIP seats to meet the soon-to-be-appointed White House officials in charge of AI and cryptocurrency.

“The reign of terror against cryptocurrency is over.” The soon-to-be-appointed official clearly opposed the Biden administration's stringent regulations. “Innovation in American cryptocurrency has just begun.”

This ball was held to celebrate Trump’s impending inauguration, and attendees looked forward to the most crypto-friendly U.S. president introducing favorable policies for the industry, but Trump did not appear at the ball.

Halfway through the ball, news of the $TRUMP launch broke, and many attendees were just learning about it. As the rapper at the ball sang “Don't Stop Believin'”, more and more people around the world began to believe that $TRUMP was real, leading to a surge of funds that quickly boosted the market cap of this meme coin and 0xSun's wealth.

In 0xSun's eyes, this name was just an influential symbol, a hot meme, indistinguishable from the emojis representing other meme coins (like Doge heads and sad frogs).

From Seeking Utility to Complete Speculation, “Even Given a Hundred More Chances, I Couldn't Make This Money”

At 9:30 PM, Christine closely monitored 0xSun's on-chain wallet, seeing him buy $20,000 every minute, totaling $600,000. Christine only invested $10,000 to test the waters; she felt “there was no longer any time or cost advantage.”

Half an hour later, 0xSun was already enjoying huge returns from his substantial investment, constantly refreshing the profit calculation tool page. At his fastest, his asset number increased by $1 million every few minutes.

“The profit numbers on paper have become enormous.” 0xSun said that when the price reached $4, he sold a portion to ensure he could recoup his principal. Those who made the most money from $TRUMP typically shared a similar profile: they spent all day monitoring their systems, watching information, turning their screens into an extension of their bodies; they were willing to take risks but had clear trading discipline.

Christine was not one of them. She was also very dedicated, keeping her computer by her pillow, and the first thing she did upon waking was check the market on her screen while still in bed. On the day $TRUMP was launched, she had to accept the fact that by simply sleeping an extra half hour, her cost for buying $TRUMP was already six times higher than 0xSun's.

Five to six hours after the launch, the price of $TRUMP soared to $14 and temporarily stabilized. “For an air coin that has nothing, I feel like it (the price) can't go up anymore,” Christine said. In the lobby of the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in West Kowloon, Hong Kong, she pulled out her computer during a break from her job to sell.

Three hours later, she was surprised to see the price line suddenly surge at a 90-degree angle, with the price not dropping but continuing to climb to $23 as a large influx of funds poured in—“whales” had entered the market. Christine bought in again, and when it reached $25, she hurriedly sold.

Christine was not alone in this; many people in the crypto space were doing the same, observing and making tentative purchases.

Some of them were primarily involved in NFTs, turning artworks into tradable virtual collectibles; others were engaged in decentralized finance (DeFi), lending on-chain to earn interest; some were trading contracts, leveraging predictions on the price movements of certain coins for high returns.

“We are all doing speculative trading; there’s no high or low, it’s just that meme coins are speculation within speculation,” one trader joked. Due to their extreme volatility and baseless hype, along with frequent scams, meme coins had previously held a marginal position in the crypto world.

In the past two years, meme coins have gradually entered the mainstream of the crypto space. According to cryptocurrency data platform CoinGecko, last year meme coins attracted the attention of 31% of crypto investors. One in three people showed more interest in “air coins” featuring cats, dogs, and frog monkey designs than in value coins with technological innovations.

On the third day after the launch of $TRUMP, the day after the inauguration, the 47th President of the United States faced reporters' questions and seemed clueless: “I initiated it, it’s very successful, but beyond that, I don’t know much about it.”

His vague attitude drew dissatisfaction from many industry insiders. Danny Scott, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange CoinCorner, stated that Trump is mocking the entire industry with a hype show.

Last year, at the Bitcoin 2024 conference hosted by the long-established cryptocurrency media Bitcoin Magazine, Trump took the stage to announce a series of crypto-friendly policies, including Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and making the U.S. a global crypto hub and Bitcoin superpower.

Before fulfilling any promises, the exchange of interests had already taken place. The founder of a blockchain news platform found it hard to understand why members of Congress had to declare trades of tens of thousands of dollars in stocks and were ridiculed globally, while the soon-to-be president could engage in cryptocurrency without any regulation, treating the crypto space as an ATM.

A significant proportion of early cryptocurrency participants were decentralized idealists. However, as Bitcoin generated immense value, financial investment or speculation became mainstream. In recent years, with government regulations, large financial institutions, and more public participation, compliance has gradually become the dominant narrative.

The aforementioned news platform founder felt that the Trump team’s issuance of coins represented a collapse of traditional compliance; even the president could issue a worthless meme coin without restraint just two days before taking office, implying that anyone could do it.

“The industry is entering a super cycle of meme coins,” said a trader known as doso.eth. The wealth effect of meme coins is becoming increasingly strong; for example, in March 2024, a KOL who specialized in creating sad frog memes launched a coin that reached a market cap of over a billion dollars in just two to three days, with many early participants achieving hundredfold returns.

The crypto space is switching its gameplay, and many veterans have not followed the meme coin craze because they disdain it, do not understand it, or do not believe in it.

Trader Daftpunk did not profit from $TRUMP because his main position was not on the Solana chain that hosted $TRUMP. Transferring assets from other places took him much longer than players on the Solana chain. Daftpunk entered the market at the peak of the Bitcoin boom in 2017, considering himself an idealist of decentralization, but he disagreed with and disliked the more centralized development and governance of platforms like Solana. Nevertheless, he eventually followed the trend and bought in.

A trader known as “Queen” in the crypto space heavily invested $6 million to chase the price when $TRUMP reached $8.5. Two days later, she added a line to her social media bio: “Turned $6m to $32m in 2 days. RETIRED :)”

An experienced player who bought in at $1.4 had his own money-making insights: meme coins have no fundamentals, and the core abilities boil down to two points: entering enough core circles to grasp the most firsthand information; being prepared with funds and constantly monitoring the market to develop a set of personal trading principles.

Christine said, “Even if I had a hundred more chances, I couldn’t make this money.” Her investment style is conservative, and she is not willing to full-time “dog hunt” (speculate on meme coins); she feels this money is only suitable for those in their twenties. In her thirties, she can no longer endure the sleepless nights of monitoring the market, “It’s easy to die from stress at my age.”

At 5 AM on the 18th, 0xSun made his last operation, selling, and his initial $600,000 had turned into over $20 million in profit.

He felt it was somewhat unreal. In the three years since he entered the market, he had been waking up after just one or two hours of sleep, first checking the market and news to avoid missing any opportunities. When traveling, he would even pack a 27-inch monitor in his suitcase. Now, he planned to take a break.

Starting on the 18th, well-known exchanges like Binance began listing $TRUMP, and a large number of retail investors who would not directly trade on-chain rushed to buy, driving the price from $40 to $70.

At that time, Christine had just finished a few hours of flying. She opened her phone, and a flurry of new messages seemed to burst from the screen. Many retail investors she had little contact with—car sellers, real estate agents, insurance sellers, beauty professionals, and KTV booking agents—came to ask her: could she help buy $TRUMP?

At the same time, she opened her blockchain monitoring system and saw that the “smart money” in the circle was selling, “This time it’s really at the top.”

An investor observed that a significant change in 2024 was that the entire crypto space no longer talked about ideals; everyone had entered a state of “web3 nihilism,” which had become apparent—Bitcoin was increasingly becoming a mainstream asset, while most other things were proving to be bubbles and air.

“Everyone is here to gamble,” the investor said, “and when gambling, you definitely want to bet on the hottest, highest odds, and most exciting options, which is why $TRUMP exploded.”

A Zero-Sum Game: The Money Earned by 60 Winners Comes from Ordinary Investors’ Losses

Sean bought in heavily three times at the price peak, then quickly regretted it, selling at a loss, only to regret it again soon after.

Initially, he saw the price at only $0.6, which quickly rose to $17, and he tested the waters with a few hundred dollars. The next day, when he checked again, the price had exceeded $30. “It’s okay, just consider it a missed opportunity,” Sean reassured himself. But soon he couldn’t resist; a few minutes later, the price surged past $40. In a moment of excitement, Sean used almost all his funds to buy in at $46.

Immediately after buying, Sean regretted it. He had an event to attend that day where he was to give a speech, but his thoughts were completely consumed by the price fluctuations. So, he sold everything at $45, deciding to focus on the upcoming event.

After attending the event, when he checked his phone again, $TRUMP had already risen to $70, and feelings of regret overwhelmed his rationality—he went all in at $70, sold everything at $55, then jumped back in at $65, and finally sold out at $60.

Sean lost over $10,000 that day, which wasn’t a huge loss since most of his assets were not on-chain. Previously, he mainly earned “airdrops” (free tokens) by completing simple tasks provided by project teams, and on-chain trading was outside his comfort zone.

What bothered him more than losing money was that some people made tens of millions of dollars while he did not. Before entering the crypto space, he was a professional athlete who loved competition and enjoyed winning.

That night, after losing money trading $TRUMP, an emotionally distraught Sean reviewed his operations with ChatGPT, asking how he should adjust his mindset and what books he should read.

ChatGPT advised him to “accept losses” and “try to relax the obsession with ‘making money immediately’,” and provided him with a reading list, the first book being Robert Kiyosaki’s “Rich Dad Poor Dad.” “It’s suitable for those who want to fundamentally change their understanding of money,” ChatGPT recommended.

Sean had already changed his understanding of money through this book. In the spring of 2016, while training in the mountains as an athlete, without a phone or computer, he read “Rich Dad Poor Dad” and learned for the first time that “money can make money” and “this is how rich people earn money.”

In September 2022, Sean retired from his athletic career and began focusing on Web3. He and a few friends established a studio, concentrating on discovering early cryptocurrency projects to earn “airdrops.” After the failure of the $TRUMP trade, Sean decided to shift more of his energy to on-chain activities.

Sean had hesitated about whether to share his story of losing money because he also operated a community and needed to maintain a persona of making money, but later he felt that facing the problem was more important than appearances.

After learning about more people's experiences, he discovered that the number of earners might not be as high as he thought; aside from a few “whales,” very few friends around him were flaunting their profits. And not flaunting profits was not the style of this circle.

Data confirmed his suspicions. According to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis, as of January 21, Eastern Time, among those who held $TRUMP, less than 23% had profits exceeding $100, and the money lost mainly went to the 60 individuals who earned over ten million dollars.

“This is a zero-sum game; the money won by the winners is the money lost by those with lower skill levels,” said Jack, who currently works at a leading cryptocurrency exchange. In mature securities markets, large companies continuously attract more funds as their performance grows, but meme coins are merely symbols, primarily for short-term arbitrage, where early entrants sell to later ones.

After the launch of $TRUMP, the meme coin trading platform Moonshot, which partnered with it, briefly surged to fourth place on the North American App Store download chart. Moonshot had previously only a few thousand daily active users, but on the day $TRUMP launched, its trading fees and user numbers were dozens of times higher than usual.

Meme coins like $TRUMP are initially created by the project initiation team on public chains to establish liquidity pools, allowing investors to trade directly with the project team. After a period of issuance, gaining a certain level of attention and trading volume, they may officially list on mainstream exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and OKX.

Investors who discover opportunities earlier and trade directly on-chain have the chance to win high odds at very low prices. However, because they are trading directly with the project team, the risks of having liquidity pools withdrawn or being dumped are also very high, leading to blind betting and a high rate of loss.

Most investors cannot monitor information in real-time and lack the ability to accurately assess risks; they are simply attracted by the word Trump.

An investor who had only entered the market for two months shared on social media that he made over $10,000 buying $TRUMP on Binance the day before, but the next day he went on-chain to buy $MELANIA and ultimately lost over $50,000.

Many people who had never engaged in on-chain trading rushed to open accounts. Data from Chainalysis shows that about half of the holders of $TRUMP and $MELANIA (a meme coin based on the image of Melania Trump) had never purchased cryptocurrency on the Solana blockchain; they created their crypto wallets on the same day they bought the tokens. Over 80% of the holders had total assets on Solana not exceeding $1,000, indicating that most were not deeply involved in on-chain trading.

Compared to the complex on-chain transactions, Binance and OKX are the platforms most people would use, as they have user interfaces as friendly as mainstream stock trading software, making them easier to operate.

However, for speculative varieties like meme coins, multiple interviewees viewed the listing of spot trading on Binance as a selling opportunity. They noticed a surge in buying sentiment, with even friends and family outside the crypto circle starting to inquire about how to buy coins, prompting them to decide to take profits and exit.

Before $TRUMP was listed on mainstream exchanges, at least over 100,000 investors had purchased it through public chains. After Binance listed the spot trading, the price of $TRUMP soared from over $40 to nearly double, but soon fell back below $40, and as of the time of writing, it was below $27.

A large number of new players were eager to enter the market, and some sensed business opportunities, even making money by “selling water.” Searching for keywords in some communities reveals many posts offering invitation codes and teaching newcomers how to download, register, and use trading apps.

Liu Lei, a senior partner and head of the digital economy department at Beijing Yingke Law Firm, told us that Trump’s attitude has changed the rules of the game, prompting Wall Street, regulators, and investors to reassess the future of the crypto industry. However, it is still too early to draw conclusions.

From a lawyer's perspective, Liu Lei believes that the biggest impact of the Trump team issuing coins on American society is not primarily reflected in the economic aspect for now, but rather in how it exacerbates chaos in the political, financial, and legal fields. Liu Lei stated that Trump’s supporters might view it as a form of “political faith investment,” but if the coin price crashes, it will ultimately be ordinary investors who suffer.

In less than 48 hours, at least billions of dollars in wealth had been transferred. Like every speculation, the initiators always profit, the platforms earn transaction fees, a very small number of savvy individuals seize the opportunity, and some old users earn a small fee and referral commissions through “hands-on teaching,” while the majority of participants who rush in pay the price for them.

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